Analysis

4239 Results

How Different Will the 2008 White House Map Look From ‘04 and ‘00?

Illinois Democratic Sen. Barack Obama talks about changing the map in this year’s presidential contest. So do Republicans, who argue that Obama’s poor showing among some Democratic constituencies gives Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) an opportunity to pilfer a couple of traditionally Democratic states in November. There will be changes, but don’t expect the 2008 presidential […]

Arizona 3: New Poll Reveals Little

Polling memos are only as valuable as the numbers in them. A May 27 Bennett, Petts & Normington memo in Arizona’s 3rd district claims that Rep. John Shadegg (R) is “extremely vulnerable” but provides few and flimsy numbers from the actual survey to support the claim. The May 18-20 survey, conducted for Shadegg’s Democratic challenger, […]

New Mexico 2: Turnout Down in Competitive District

There has been plenty of talk about Democratic excitement and turnout exceeding Republican turnout this year and how that bodes well for Democratic prospects in November. But in New Mexico’s open 2nd Congressional district on Tuesday, something odd happened: Republican turnout remained largely unchanged, while Democratic turnout slid. In 2002, both parties had competitive primaries […]

When Running Is a Family Affair

Former Rep. Jim Slattery (D) officially filed his long-shot bid to unseat Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.). It’s common for candidates to make their announcement with family in tow, but Tuesday’s event was different because Slattery’s son, Mike, is simultaneously running for the state House. Both Slatterys face primary opponents on Aug. 5, but they hit […]

California 4: Brown’s Poll Signals Tough Road Ahead

As California state Sen. Tom McClintock (R) was on his way to a primary win over former Rep. Doug Ose (R-Calif.) in the Golden State’s 4th district, a new poll released by the likely Democratic nominee, Charlie Brown, showed him leading both Republicans in hypothetical general election matchups. A May 14-15 Benenson Strategy Group survey […]

California 4: Brown’s Poll Signals Tough Road Ahead

By Nathan L. Gonzales As California state Sen. Tom McClintock (R) was on his way to a primary win over former Rep. Doug Ose (R-Calif.) in the Golden State’s 4th district, a new poll released by the likely Democratic nominee, Charlie Brown, showed him leading both Republicans in hypothetical general election matchups. A May 14-15 […]

Will Bob Barr and the Libertarians Be a Factor in the Presidential Race?

It was sometime toward the end of Saturday afternoon, May 24, that I concluded that the Libertarian Party is about as politically tone-deaf as anyone or any organization that I have ever observed. I had just watched a few hours of the party’s presidential nominating convention on C-SPAN and listened to party leaders falling all […]

New York 20: Treadwell to Go on the Air in New York Race

Former New York Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell (R) is set to air his first television ads of the campaign in the Empire State’s 20th District, according to a knowledgeable GOP source. Treadwell still has to secure the Republican nomination on Sept. 9, but his willingness to go on television early suggests that freshman Rep. […]

McCain: No Special Interest

Republicans nationwide are expecting Arizona Sen. John McCain to save their party and bring hope to the entire ballot this fall. But he hardly lifted a finger in three recent special elections where his party lost seats. In 2006, McCain’s presence on the campaign trail was a prized commodity as President Bush’s popularity plummeted. And […]

New Print Edition: Virginia 11 & Kentucky Senate

The May 30, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly House and Senate ratings, and coverage of […]