Is the presidential race opening up for Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), or is GOP Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) in the middle of a comeback even as analysts note that the financial crisis is hurting the GOP? Are Democratic House and Senate candidates getting a bounce because of the crisis, or are Republican numbers on […]
At the beginning of each election cycle, Republican and Democratic campaign strategists are armed with a list of potential targets — based on anecdotes, possible challengers and carefully compiled statistics to make their case against supposedly vulnerable incumbents. Not surprisingly, some targets turn into real opportunities while others simply don’t. In the case of three […]
A new poll released by Florida Democrat Christine Jennings is a great example of why it’s important to not accept polling numbers and memos at face value. Two years ago, Jennings lost the 13th district open-seat race by the slimmest of margins, 50.1 percent to 49.9 percent, to Republican Vern Buchanan. Jennings contested the results […]
We’ve entered the season of dueling polls, and Montana’s gubernatorial race is no exception. Earlier this week, the Montana Democratic Party released a poll showing Gov. Brian Schweitzer (D) with a huge 39-point lead over his challenger, state Sen. Roy Brown (R). The poll, conducted Sept. 16-18 by the Mellman Group, showed the incumbent with […]
Now that both campaigns have lost all of their credibility by distorting each other’s records and agendas, where does the 2008 presidential contest stand? I don’t have data on this, but I’m willing to bet that at this point in the race most voters don’t believe anything that they see or hear in Sen. Barack […]
The September 26, 2008 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition comes out every two weeks (even more frequently as Election Day approaches) and the content is not available online. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as quarterly […]
Louisiana Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) can’t rest easy after his special election victory in the 6th district just a few months ago. His victory expanded the Democratic Party’s House majority, but one of his new colleagues, Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D-N.C.), contributed to an Independent candidate who is complicating Cazayoux’s re-election effort in November. Cazayoux won […]
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is exercising its financial muscle with television ads on behalf of a cash-strapped candidate in Kentucky’s 2nd district. State Sen. David Boswell (D) has a similar political profile to southern Reps. Don Cazayoux (D-La.) and Travis Childers (D-Miss.), who were elected earlier this year in special elections. The main problem […]
Nine Republican-held Senate seats continue to be at great risk, giving Democrats at least a theoretical possibility of getting to 60 seats after the November elections. Increasingly, it appears that three seats could well determine whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee can reach that magic number: North Carolina, Minnesota and Mississippi. Republican nominees in five […]
Former Rep. Larry LaRocco (D) lost his 2006 bid to become Idaho’s lieutenant governor against Jim Risch (R). The two men are facing each other again this cycle for the Senate, and when LaRocco entered the race, some local Democrats and enthusiastic bloggers tried to make the case that 2008 was a much different race […]