Analysis

4239 Results

2009 Election Results Show How the Context Has Changed

The discussion about whether the election results earlier this month reflected local factors or constituted a referendum on President Barack Obama creates a false choice. Candidate quality, fundraising and local issues are always significant factors in gubernatorial races. But the national political and economic environment creates the context within which those state races are fought, […]

New Print Edition: Pennsylvania Senate & Michigan 7

The November 17, 2009 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. […]

Pennsylvania Senate: Primarily Focused

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Michigan 7: Schauer Power

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Democrats Face Pros and Cons in Nationalizing 2010 Races

David Axelrod has a cure that may be worse than the disease he’s trying to alleviate. The senior White House adviser admitted that low turnout among base Democratic voters contributed to the party’s gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey last week. And the White House plans to nationalize the 2010 elections around President Barack […]

Learning the Right Lessons From 2009 Results

Everyone and his brother has opinions about what happened on Tuesday, but not all assessments are equally correct, just as not all of the descriptions of the contests, while they were in progress, were equally on the mark. What were some of the mistakes and mischaracterizations during the campaigns and after the voting? One of […]

Florida 8: Eisnaugle Declines To Run

State Rep. Eric Eisnaugle is the latest Republican candidate to decline to run against freshman Rep. Alan Grayson (D) in Florida’s 8th District. Eisnaugle is expected to make an official announcement soon, according to GOP sources. Businessman Bruce O’Donoghue (R) and state Rep. Kurt Kelly (R) are still considering their options. Young developer Armando Gutierrez […]

After Hoffman, Rubio Is Likely Conservatives’ Next Challenge

The defeat of Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman in New York’s 23rd district isn’t likely to change conservatives’ plans to turn their attention quickly to Florida’s GOP Senate primary. The Club for Growth’s endorsement of former state Speaker Marco Rubio (R) now seems inevitable, since he has positioned himself as the conservative insurgent against Gov. […]

New York 23 Remains a Toss-Up

Bill Owens’ victory in New York’s 23rd was the good news for Democrats this week and continued the party’s winning streak in competitive House special elections. But the dynamic that helped Owens win- including a divided Republican Party- can’t be ignored and aren’t likely to be replicated again. For now, his reelection next year is […]

Florida 8: A Lesson on How Not to Win Re-Election

After almost 30 years doing this, I shouldn’t be surprised by anything Members of Congress do. But even I was taken aback when Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) referred to an adviser to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke as a “K Street whore.” Democratic colleagues called the comment “absurd” (Rep. Bill Pascrell of New Jersey) and […]