Broken campaign promises complicate a politician’s re-election effort, but they don’t have to be fatal. This cycle, when faced with their own words from a previous campaign, two incumbents utilized different strategies in their quest for another term. One of the most famous examples of a broken campaign promise came during the 1988 presidential race. […]
Before the holiday, I had a piece on FiveThirtyEight.com talking about so-called “anti-incumbent elections.” A couple of excerpts are below but feel free to read the whole piece. Despite a stunningly low congressional approval rating and many calls to “throw all the bums out,” we don’t have anti-incumbent elections in the United States. This year’s […]
Every election cycle is filled with twists and turns, upsets and surprises. And every cycle is filled with goofy arguments, warnings about things that never happen and unsurprising outcomes that surprise only the politically uneducated. For me, the biggest surprises included Dave Brat’s primary upset of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Thad Cochran’s win in […]
Congress is filled with a bunch of losers, but not exactly in the way you’re thinking. In the wake of the elections, it’s easy to second-guess losing candidates and their campaigns, and to discount their chances of ever winning a seat in Congress. But at least 27 incoming House members have electoral losses on their […]
You could feel it from Day One of this cycle. Senate Democratic strategists knew they were smarter than their Republican adversaries. They’d out-think them and out-work them. Incumbent Democratic senators who run good campaigns rarely lose, I was reminded. Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, who had been appointed to his seat, won a tough race in […]
There’s plenty of discussion about the difference between midterm and presidential electorates, but there is one emerging constant: the white evangelical vote. At least one interest group, Ralph Reed’s Faith & Freedom Coalition, claimed that conservative Christians played a “decisive role” in the recent midterm elections. But according to the exit polls, white evangelicals made […]
The ink is barely dry on the 2014 election results, but one unsuccessful candidate is making it clear that he is running again. Republican Paul Chabot came up short in California’s 31st District but told the Rothenberg Political Report and Roll Call Thursday he wants a re-match. “It’s now or never,” said Chabot, who conceded […]
After suffering heavy losses in the House and the Senate in the recent midterm elections, some congressional Democrats may breathe a sigh of relief now that President Barack Obama is entering his final two years in office. But the approaching end of the Obama Administration doesn’t mean Obama won’t be a factor in 2016 and, […]