Analysis

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2016 Senate Overview (July 24, 2015) New York – Wyoming

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The Politics of Identity Politics

“I’m tired of hyphenated Americans,” complains Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal in “We’re All Americans,” a television spot aired by Believe Again, the super PAC supporting the presidential hopeful’s bid. “We’re not Indian-Americans or African-Americans or Asian-Americans. We’re all Americans,” he continues as the audience applauds. Jindal thinks the way most conservatives and Republicans do. They […]

Less Hair Could Mean More Votes in Minnesota

It’s no secret that hair was the source of Samson’s strength. But unlike the Old Testament Nazirite, one potential congressional challenger is hoping less could mean more at the ballot box. Republican Stewart Mills might have the most talked about hair in politics, second only to Donald Trump. Last cycle, Mills challenged Democratic-Farmer-Labor Rep. Rick […]

Who Will Benefit From the Issues Mix in 2016?

Every election is different, but they almost always come down to one question: What is the election about? Some elections are about one or both of the candidates (personality, preparedness or accomplishments), while others are merely about “change.” Some are about the economy in general, or jobs or inflation in particular. A relative few are […]

Bernie Sanders: The Latest Version of Howard Dean

Vermont Sen. Bernard Sanders’ poll numbers in New Hampshire have reporters taking notice and progressive Democrats excited: Bernie is surging! But that’s just the tip of the iceberg, if you believe the 73-year-old Vermont independent-turned-Democratic presidential hopeful. “We are going to win New Hampshire. We’re going to win Iowa, and I think we’re going to […]

The Donald Trump Impact: Not so Inevitable After All

I was surprised by the near unanimity over the weekend about the impact of the Donald Trump comments about Mexican immigrants. Almost every disinterested political observer agreed Trump’s typically over-the-top remarks were certain to hurt GOP prospects in the 2016 presidential election. I am skeptical about that. Once again, too many observers got caught up […]

Heck’s Decision Prompts Rating Change in Two Nevada Races

Republican Rep. Joe Heck’s decision to run for the Senate is no surprise, but now that he is officially in the race, we are changing our rating in two Nevada races.  The race for Democratic Sen. Harry Reid’s open seat was already competitive, but Republican chances improve slightly with Heck’s decision. He is a battle-tested […]

North Carolina Senate: Life After Hagan

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Pennsylvania 6: Suburban Districts Elude Democrats

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When the Second Time Isn’t the Charm

I feel bad for Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee and Rick Perry. They are presidential retreads at a moment when anything that is more than an hour or two old is passé. John McCain was a retread in 2008 (having lost a bid for the GOP nomination in 2000), as was Mitt Romney four years later. […]