Montana Senate: New Poll Confirms GOP Edge
When Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines dropped his re-election bid at the last minute earlier this year, he injected some intrigue to a sleepy contest. For a moment, the race looked poised to crash the Senate battleground.
But a new poll obtained by Inside Elections shows Republicans remain favored to hold onto the open seat, despite a worsening national political environment for the GOP and a well-funded independent candidate in the race.
A June 23-24 poll conducted by GrayHouse, a Republican polling firm with no client in the race, found Republican Kurt Alme leading the field with 41 percent, followed by Democrat Alani Bankhead with 25 percent and independent Seth Bodnar with 17 percent. Libertarian Kyle Austin took 3 percent.
Alme, a former US Attorney and Daines’ handpicked successor, is untested as a candidate, and his sudden elevation and avoidance of a primary ruffled some local feathers even as national strategists appreciated the lack of a messy primary. Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, has support from some of the state’s most prominent Democrats, including former Sens. Jon Tester and Max Baucus.
Democrats have had some success in backing independent candidates running in Republican states: Nebraska’s Dan Osborn and Utah’s Evan McMullin turned no-shot contests into competitive races in 2024 and 2022.
But Montana’s Democratic rank-and-file begin the general election reluctant to back Bodnar, a former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar.
That’s because unlike in Nebraska or Utah, there is still an actual Democrat in the race: Bankhead, a previously unknown Air Force veteran who was boosted to a primary win by millions of dollars in spending from a group that actually supports Bodnar. The group believed Bankhead was more likely to drop out of a general election than her primary opponents.
But the Democrat made clear in a recent press conference she has no plans to drop out, and Inside Elections shifted the race from Likely Republican to Solid Republican last week.
In the GrayHouse poll, 60 percent of Democrats supported Bankhead while 28 percent supported Bodnar. Independents split between the three top contenders, with Bodnar winning 30 percent, Bankhead 27 percent, and Alme 22 percent.
The results are the latest evidence that Bodnar’s path to victory is severely limited so long as Bankhead remains in the race.
Two other polls conducted since the June 2 primary tell a similar story to the GrayHouse survey.
A June 8-11 poll from GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies showed Alme ahead with 44 percent, followed by Bankhead at 25 percent, and Bodnar at 20 percent. Austin captured 4 percent. Among Democrats, Bankhead led Bodnar, 59-32 percent.
A June 16-19 poll from Tavern Research found Alme leading a four-way field with 49 percent, followed by Bankhead at 26 percent, Bodnar at 24 percent, and Austin at 2 percent. Bankhead captured 78 percent of the Democratic vote to Bodnar’s 20 percent.
Tavern, a Democratic firm, has polled for pro-Bodnar groups, including the super PAC that boosted Bankhead in the Democratic primary.
That effort, backed by $2.5 million, was primarily to block former state Rep. Reilly Neill from winning the Democratic nomination. Neill was a vocal critic of Bodnar who had made clear she would not bow out of the general election. Unlike Bankhead, she had a staffed campaign that raised more than $200,000 through mid-May — Bankhead raised just $17,000. Republicans, meanwhile, spent several million dollars attempting to boost Neill among Democratic primary voters.
If there’s a warning sign for Republicans, it’s that their nominee is polling consistently below 50 percent in a state that President Donald Trump won with 58 percent of the vote in 2024 and where the last GOP nominee, Tim Sheehy, won 54 percent of the vote against an incumbent senator despite being outspent considerably. In GrayHouse’s poll, a generic Republican beat a generic Democrat, 51-41 percent, and Trump’s ratings remain in positive territory, at 53 percent approve and 47 percent disapprove.
As long as both Bankhead and Bodnar look competitive, that’s not a problem for Alme, who only needs a plurality to win. But while Bankhead has said she won’t drop out, she also hasn’t shown any ability to raise money or mount a statewide campaign. Her primary win can be credited entirely to outside spending from a group that won’t back her in a general election. Bodnar, meanwhile, is the top fundraiser in the field, with $2.1 million raised through May 13 to Alme’s $1.2 million.
While Bankhead may poll ahead of Bodnar now, she does not have a path to victory herself even if Bodnar were to drop out, as she has called on him to do. So if the independent begins to spend more heavily to introduce himself to Democratic voters, and if outside groups begin to work to drive down Bankhead’s support, the race could begin to develop in a different direction.
The Tavern Research poll found that in head-to-head matchups, Bodnar and Alme were tied, 50-50 percent, while Alme led Bankhead, 56-44 percent.
Ultimately, the presence of any Democrat on the ballot likely siphons off too many anti-Alme votes for Bodnar to pull ahead. That puts this race in a different category than Nebraska, where Osborn, the independent running a second time, engineered a one-on-one contest against Sen. Pete Ricketts that remains competitive — and unlike Montana, could provide a backdoor path to a Democratic Senate majority.
GrayHouse (R), June 23-24 (500 LV)(live caller/text-to-web)— General election ballot: Alme 41%, Bankhead 25%, Bodnar 17%.
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