Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +2.3
D: 48.6%, R: 50.9%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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2026 Election

Class II

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Class III

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Polls

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Harper Polling (R)

Source: Carolina Journal May 10 – May 11, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 22, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

North Carolina Senate: Tar Heel Target

December 18, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

North Carolina Senate: Tillis Decision Creates Open Seat

June 29, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

April 17, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 7, 2025)

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
July 24, 2025
Toss-up
June 29, 2025
Battleground Republican
January 9, 2025
Battleground Republican
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
October 7, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 7, 2022
Lean Republican
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2020
December 15, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 1, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 11, 2019
Toss-up
January 4, 2019
Tilt Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
January 9, 2015
Lean Republican
2014
October 29, 2014
Toss-up
July 15, 2014
Tilt Democrat
May 7, 2014
Toss-up
May 21, 2013
Tilt Democrat
January 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Likely Republican

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5