Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Lean D

Baseline

What's This?
R +2.3
D: 48.6%, R: 50.9%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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2026 Election

Class II

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Class III

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Polls

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SurveyUSA for WRAL/WSOC

54% D R. Cooper
40% R M. Whatley
Source: SurveyUSA Oct 7 – Oct 11, 2026

Change Research (D) for Carolina Forward

50% D R. Cooper
40% R M. Whatley
Source: Change Research Oct 1 – Oct 7, 2026

East Carolina University

50% D R. Cooper
43% R M. Whatley
Source: East Carolina University Sep 30 – Oct 3, 2026

Quantus Insights (R)

48% D R. Cooper
43% R M. Whatley
1% I M. Dublin
1% I S. Bray
Source: Quantus Insights Sep 21 – Sep 22, 2026

Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) for AARP

53% D R. Cooper
42% R M. Whatley
Source: Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research Sep 17 – Sep 20, 2026

Opinion Diagnostics for Common Cause North Carolina

52% D R. Cooper
44% R M. Whatley
Source: Opinion Diagnostics Sep 17 – Sep 20, 2026

YouGov

51% D R. Cooper
41% R M. Whatley
Source: YouGov Sep 15 – Sep 18, 2026

Harper Polling (R) for Carolina Journal

48% D R. Cooper
34% R M. Whatley
3% I S. Bray
2% I M. Dublin
Source: Harper Polling Sep 13 – Sep 15, 2026

Public Policy Polling (D)

48% D R. Cooper
44% R M. Whatley
Source: Public Policy Polling Jul 10 – Jul 11, 2026

New York Times/Siena University

50% D R. Cooper
43% R M. Whatley
Source: New York Times/Siena University Jun 15 – Jun 27, 2026

Harper Polling (R)

Source: Carolina Journal May 10 – May 11, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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The Issues Fueling the Most Expensive Ad War in Midterm History

October 26, 2026
by Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Where White Women Could Swing in November

October 15, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

October 1, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

The 19 Swing Counties to Watch in 2026 Senate Majority Fight

July 28, 2026
by Ashleigh Jones

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 22, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

January 22, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales

Ratings

2026
October 1, 2026
Lean Democrat
August 6, 2026
Tilt Democrat
July 24, 2025
Toss-up
June 29, 2025
Battleground Republican
January 9, 2025
Battleground Republican
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
October 7, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 7, 2022
Lean Republican
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2020
December 15, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 1, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 11, 2019
Toss-up
January 4, 2019
Tilt Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
January 9, 2015
Lean Republican
2014
October 29, 2014
Toss-up
July 15, 2014
Tilt Democrat
May 7, 2014
Toss-up
May 21, 2013
Tilt Democrat
January 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Likely Republican

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5