Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Michigan
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

Baseline

What's This?
D +4.5
D: 51%, R: 46.5%

2026 Election

Class I

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Class II

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Polls

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SoCal Strategies for Red Eagle Politics (R)

42% R M. Rogers
41% D A. El-Sayed
Jul 28 – Jul 30, 2026

Epic-MRA & Michigan Information & Research Service

46% R M. Rogers
43% D A. El-Sayed
Jul 24 – Jul 26, 2026

Tulchin Research for Fighting for Michigan PAC (D)

56% D A. El-Sayed
49% D H. Stevens
Source: Tulchin Research Jul 13 – Jul 15, 2026

Data for Progress (D) for American Priorities

54% D A. El-Sayed
41% D H. Stevens
Source: Data for Progress Jul 10 – Jul 14, 2026

Glengariff Group for Detroit News/WDIV-TV

48% D H. Stevens
41% D A. El-Sayed
Source: Glengariff Group Jul 8 – Jul 11, 2026

Data for Progress (D)

47% D A. El-Sayed
46% R M. Rogers
Source: Data for Progress Jun 15 – Jun 22, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
21
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Primary Results in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington

August 5, 2026
by Nicholas Demba & Jacob Rubashkin

Top 5 Candidates Who Didn’t Run (and Why They Might Affect Senate Majority)

July 31, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

The 19 Swing Counties to Watch in 2026 Senate Majority Fight

July 28, 2026
by Ashleigh Jones

Senate Report Shorts (July 23, 2026)

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nathan L. Gonzales

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 22, 2026) – Kentucky – New Mexico

January 22, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales

Report Shorts (Dec. 18, 2025)

December 18, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
July 24, 2025
Toss-up
February 13, 2025
Toss-up
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
January 9, 2025
Battleground Democrat
2024
February 9, 2024
Tilt Democrat
July 28, 2023
Lean Democrat
January 6, 2023
Battleground Democrat
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Democrat
January 10, 2020
Lean Democrat
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
January 4, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
January 13, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
October 9, 2014
Likely Democrat
February 28, 2014
Lean Democrat
November 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
January 25, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
September 28, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 28, 2011
Likely Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+4.5D 51.0, R 46.5
2024
+4.5
2022
+5.0
2020
+1.9
2018
+3.7
2016
+1.4
2014
+1.8