Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Michigan
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +4.5
D: 51%, R: 46.5%

2026 Election

Class II

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
21
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 Senate Overview

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (Dec. 18, 2025)

December 18, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Senate Report Shorts (Aug. 28, 2025)

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

April 17, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 20, 2025)

March 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 7, 2025)

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Michigan Senate: Open for Candidates

February 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
July 24, 2025
Toss-up
February 13, 2025
Toss-up
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
January 9, 2025
Battleground Democrat
2024
February 9, 2024
Tilt Democrat
July 28, 2023
Lean Democrat
January 6, 2023
Battleground Democrat
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Democrat
January 10, 2020
Lean Democrat
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
January 4, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
January 13, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
October 9, 2014
Likely Democrat
February 28, 2014
Lean Democrat
November 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
January 25, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
September 28, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 28, 2011
Likely Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+4.5D 51.0, R 46.5
2024
+4.5
2022
+5.0
2020
+1.9
2018
+3.7
2016
+1.4
2014
+1.8