Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Alaska
Senate

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +9.4
D: 43.3%, R: 52.7%

Class II

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Class III

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Polls

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Alaska Survey Research

50% D M. Peltola
44% R D. Sullivan
Source: Alaska Survey Research Apr 16 – Apr 19, 2026

Alaska Survey Research

51% D M. Peltola
48% R D. Sullivan
Source: Alaska Survey Research Mar 19 – Mar 22, 2026

Public Policy Polling (PPP)

49% D M. Peltola
47% R D. Sullivan
Source: DSCC Jan 16 – Jan 17, 2026

Tyson Group

43% D M. Peltola
39% R D. Sullivan
Source: Plymouth Union Public Advocacy Nov 11 – Nov 13, 2025

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
1
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Alaska Senate: Democrats Reach Into The Red

March 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Alaska Senate: Peltola Puts Seat on Battleground

January 12, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (Jan. 8, 2026)

January 8, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

April 17, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 9, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

January 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
May 28, 2026
Not Up This Cycle
January 12, 2026
Lean Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
January 1, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
January 8, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Republican
October 28, 2020
Lean Republican
July 10, 2020
Likely Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
January 9, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
October 13, 2014
Tilt Republican
September 24, 2014
Toss-up
May 21, 2013
Tilt Democrat
January 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 31, 2010
Likely Republican
October 8, 2010
Solid Republican
September 6, 2010
Solid Republican
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle
June 24, 2010
Solid Republican

Baselines

About
2025+9.4D 43.3, R 52.7
2024
+9.4
2022
+13.3
2020
+9.9
2018
+12.4
2016
+18.6
2014
+15.7