Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

Baseline

What's This?
R +2.3
D: 48.6%, R: 50.9%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
October 7, 2022
Tilt Republican
January 7, 2022
Lean Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
January 9, 2015
Lean Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Likely Republican

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 48.6, R 50.9
2024
+2.3
2022
+3.0
2020
+2.2
2018
+1.2
2016
+2.1
2014
+2.5