Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Kentucky
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +18.7
D: 40.1%, R: 58.8%

Incumbent

Paul

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JAN
9
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
19
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

May 20, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

When Do “Whale” Donors Keep Campaigns Afloat?

March 26, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

Coverage

Daniel Cameron looks to faith as GOP Senate race comes to a close on Election Day

May 26, 2026
Lexington Herald-Leader

Ratings

2026
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 8, 2021
Solid Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
January 9, 2015
Solid Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 29, 2010
Lean Republican
June 24, 2010
Tilt Republican

Baselines

About
2025+18.7D 40.1, R 58.8
2024
+18.7
2022
+19.9
2020
+15.6
2018
+15.7
2016
+9.6
2014
+8.7