Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Illinois
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +15.5
D: 56.3%, R: 40.8%

Incumbent

Duckworth

Past Elections

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Calendar

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NOV
3
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
17
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Illinois Primary Results: Democrats Nominate Likely New Members

March 18, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2026
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 8, 2021
Solid Democrat
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
May 5, 2016
Lean Democrat
May 29, 2015
Tilt Democrat
January 9, 2015
Toss-up
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
June 24, 2010
Tilt Republican

Baselines

About
2025+15.5D 56.3, R 40.8
2024
+15.5
2022
+15.6
2020
+14.3
2018
+13.9
2016
+9.4
2014
+11.6