Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Florida
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Likely R

Baseline

What's This?
R +10.3
D: 44.5%, R: 54.8%
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Florida passed a new congressional map designed to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats in the fall.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics

49% R A. Moody
45% D A. Nixon
Source: St. Pete Polls Oct 25 – Oct 27, 2026

New York Times/Siena University

50% R A. Moody
44% D A. Nixon
Source: New York Times/Siena University Oct 19 – Oct 25, 2026

Echelon Insights (R) for NetChoice

51% R A. Moody
43% D A. Nixon
3% I N. Gillespie
Source: Echelon Insights Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2026

co/efficient (R)

48% R A. Moody
40% D A. Nixon
2% I N. Gillespie
Source: co/efficient Oct 18 – Oct 20, 2026

University of North Florida

49% R A. Moody
45% D A. Nixon
Source: University of North Florida Oct 12 – Oct 19, 2026

YouGov for Univision

51% R A. Moody
42% D A. Nixon
Source: YouGov Oct 2 – Oct 15, 2026

MDW Communications for EDGE Communications

48% R A. Moody
42% D A. Nixon
Source: MDW Communications Oct 4 – Oct 10, 2026

Stetson University

52% R A. Moody
41% D A. Nixon
Source: Stetson University Oct 1 – Oct 9, 2026

St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics

47% R A. Moody
45% D A. Nixon
Source: St. Pete Polls Oct 5 – Oct 7, 2026

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy for NBC 6/Telemundo

50% R A. Moody
40% D A. Nixon
Source: Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Sep 28 – Oct 1, 2026

InsiderAdvantage (R)

49% R A. Moody
42% D A. Nixon
Source: InsiderAdvantage Sep 20 – Sep 21, 2026

Stetson Univ.

51% R A. Moody
40% D A. Nixon
Source: Stetson University Sep 14 – Sep 21, 2026

St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics

45% R A. Moody
45% D A. Nixon
Source: St. Pete Polls Sep 15 – Sep 17, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
24
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Florida Primary Results: Better Late Than Never

August 18, 2026
by Inshara Ali

Ratings

2026
October 15, 2026
Likely Republican
January 17, 2025
Solid Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 7, 2022
Likely Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
September 30, 2016
Lean Republican
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
July 1, 2016
Toss-up
April 3, 2015
Toss-up
January 9, 2015
Tilt Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 1, 2010
Likely Republican
September 17, 2010
Lean Republican
August 9, 2010
Toss-up
June 24, 2010
Tilt Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.3D 44.5, R 54.8
2024
+10.3
2022
+8.8
2020
+5.6
2018
+4.5
2016
+8.9
2014
+8.6