Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Florida
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid R

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.3
D: 44.5%, R: 54.8%
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Florida passed a new congressional map designed to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats in the fall.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
24
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes

May 8, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Florida House: Redistricting Boosts GOP prospects

May 5, 2026
by Bradley Wascher & Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 17, 2025
Solid Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 7, 2022
Likely Republican
January 8, 2021
Battleground Republican
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
September 30, 2016
Lean Republican
August 5, 2016
Tilt Republican
July 1, 2016
Toss-up
April 3, 2015
Toss-up
January 9, 2015
Tilt Republican
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 1, 2010
Likely Republican
September 17, 2010
Lean Republican
August 9, 2010
Toss-up
June 24, 2010
Tilt Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.3D 44.5, R 54.8
2024
+10.3
2022
+8.8
2020
+5.6
2018
+4.5
2016
+8.9
2014
+8.6