Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

California
Senate III

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +22.4
D: 61%, R: 38.6%
November 4, 2025
California voters approved a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 cycles that was drawn to help Democrats flip an additional 3 to 5 seats.
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Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma

June 17, 2026
by Nicholas Demba, Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Governor Report Shorts (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
March 1, 2026
Not Up This Cycle
2024
January 6, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
January 8, 2021
Solid Democrat
2018
January 13, 2017
Not Up This Cycle
2016
January 9, 2015
Solid Democrat
2012
January 1, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 29, 2010
Lean Democrat
October 22, 2010
Tilt Democrat
October 1, 2010
Lean Democrat
July 23, 2010
Tilt Democrat
June 24, 2010
Lean Democrat

Baselines

About
2025+22.4D 61.0, R 38.6
2024
+22.4
2022
+23.1
2020
+21.3
2018
+21.1
2016
+15.5
2014
+15.3