Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Senate II

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Tilt D

Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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CNN/SSRS

49% D J. Talarico
43% R K. Paxton
Source: CNN/SSRS Oct 20 – Oct 27, 2026

YouGov Blue (D) for 254 Labs

51% D J. Talarico
43% R K. Paxton
Source: YouGov Blue Oct 21 – Oct 26, 2026

Texas Southern University

49% D J. Talarico
47% R K. Paxton
2% I T. Brown
Source: Texas Southern University Oct 21 – Oct 25, 2026

YouGov for Univision

50% D J. Talarico
45% R K. Paxton
Source: YouGov Oct 13 – Oct 21, 2026

Beacon Research (D)/Shaw (R) for Fox News

49% R K. Paxton
49% D J. Talarico
Source: Beacon Research (D)/Shaw (R) Oct 15 – Oct 19, 2026

Emerson College for Nexstar

49% D J. Talarico
48% R K. Paxton
3% I T. Brown
Source: Emerson College Oct 17 – Oct 19, 2026

Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research

51% D J. Talarico
47% R K. Paxton
Source: Slingshot Strategies Oct 15 – Oct 18, 2026

YouGov for CBS News

51% D J. Talarico
49% R K. Paxton
Source: YouGov Oct 8 – Oct 16, 2026

Cor Strategies (R) for Heritage Action

44% D J. Talarico
40% R K. Paxton
Source: Cor Strategies Oct 10 – Oct 15, 2026

University of Houston

48% D J. Talarico
46% R K. Paxton
Source: University of Houston Oct 10 – Oct 14, 2026

Marist University

47% D J. Talarico
45% R K. Paxton
Source: Marist University Oct 8 – Oct 11, 2026

ReconMR/Siena University

48% D J. Talarico
44% R K. Paxton
Source: Siena University/ReconMR Oct 5 – Oct 8, 2026

Univ. of Texas/YouGov

50% D J. Talarico
47% R K. Paxton
1% I T. Brown
Source: University of Texas/YouGov Sep 25 – Oct 5, 2026

New York Times/Siena Univ.

51% D J. Talarico
45% R K. Paxton
Source: New York Times/Siena University Sep 21 – Sep 30, 2026

Guidant Polling and Strategy (R) for Public First Action

47% D J. Talarico
44% R K. Paxton
Source: Guidant Polling and Strategy Sep 20 – Sep 28, 2026

Pulse Decision Science (R) for Paxton

48% R K. Paxton
45% D J. Talarico
Source: Pulse Decision Science Sep 24 – Sep 27, 2026

Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority

48% D J. Talarico
48% R K. Paxton
Source: Stratus Intelligence Sep 22 – Sep 24, 2026

Slingshot Strategies (D) for Texas Public Opinion Research

49% D J. Talarico
45% R K. Paxton
3% I T. Brown
Source: Slingshot Strategies Sep 19 – Sep 22, 2026

Texas Southern Univ.

47% D J. Talarico
46% R K. Paxton
3% I T. Brown
Source: Texas Southern University Sep 15 – Sep 19, 2026

Emerson College for Nexstar

47% D J. Talarico
46% R K. Paxton
Source: Emerson College Sep 12 – Sep 14, 2026

Siena Univ./ReconMR

49% D J. Talarico
43% R K. Paxton
Source: Siena University/ReconMR Sep 8 – Sep 11, 2026

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy

46% D J. Talarico
43% R K. Paxton
Source: Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Sep 8 – Sep 10, 2026

InsiderAdvantage (R)

47% D J. Talarico
46% R K. Paxton
Source: InsiderAdvantage Sep 8 – Sep 9, 2026

Fabrizio Lee (R)/Impact Research (D) for AARP

48% D J. Talarico
44% R K. Paxton
Source: AARP Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2026

Emerson College for Nexstar

47% R K. Paxton
46% D J. Talarico
Source: Emerson College Aug 9 – Aug 10, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

May 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Texas: Republicans, Democrats Face Critical Early Primaries

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 22, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

January 22, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales

Why Cornyn is Still at Risk of Losing in Texas

October 25, 2025
by Nathan L. Gonzales

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Oct. 9, 2025)

October 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Tilt Democrat
October 15, 2026
Toss-up
October 1, 2026
Tilt Republican
August 6, 2026
Lean Republican
July 24, 2025
Likely Republican
January 9, 2025
Likely Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Republican
July 10, 2020
Lean Republican
June 28, 2019
Likely Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
January 25, 2013
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7