Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Senate II

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Lean R

Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Emerson College for Nexstar

47% R K. Paxton
46% D J. Talarico
Source: Emerson College Aug 9 – Aug 10, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

May 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Texas: Republicans, Democrats Face Critical Early Primaries

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Jan. 22, 2026): North Carolina – Wyoming

January 22, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales

Why Cornyn is Still at Risk of Losing in Texas

October 25, 2025
by Nathan L. Gonzales

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): North Carolina – Wyoming

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Oct. 9, 2025)

October 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
August 6, 2026
Lean Republican
July 24, 2025
Likely Republican
January 9, 2025
Likely Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Republican
July 10, 2020
Lean Republican
June 28, 2019
Likely Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
January 25, 2013
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7