Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Senate II

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State map

Current Rating

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Likely R

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

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Past Elections

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President

2024
42.5%
56.2%
D
Democrat
4,835,250 (42.5%)
R
✓Republican
6,393,597 (56.2%)
Other
151,258 (1.3%)
2020
46.5%
52.1%
D
Democrat
5,259,126 (46.5%)
R
✓Republican
5,890,347 (52.1%)
Other
165,583 (1.5%)
2016
43.2%
52.2%
D
Democrat
3,877,868 (43.2%)
R
✓Republican
4,685,047 (52.2%)
Other
406,311 (4.5%)
2012
41.4%
57.2%
D
Democrat
3,308,124 (41.4%)
R
✓Republican
4,569,843 (57.2%)
Other
115,884 (1.4%)
2008
43.7%
55.5%
D
Democrat
3,528,633 (43.7%)
R
✓Republican
4,479,328 (55.5%)
Other
69,834 (0.9%)

Senate

2024
44.6%
53.1%
D
Democrat
5,031,249 (44.6%)
R
✓Republican
5,990,741 (53.1%)
Other
267,039 (2.4%)
2020
43.9%
53.5%
D
Democrat
4,888,764 (43.9%)
R
✓Republican
5,962,983 (53.5%)
Other
292,293 (2.6%)
2018
48.3%
50.9%
D
Democrat
4,045,632 (48.3%)
R
✓Republican
4,260,553 (50.9%)
Other
65,470 (0.8%)
2014
34.4%
61.6%
D
Democrat
1,597,387 (34.4%)
R
✓Republican
2,861,531 (61.6%)
Other
189,440 (4.1%)
2012
40.6%
56.5%
D
Democrat
3,194,927 (40.6%)
R
✓Republican
4,440,137 (56.5%)
Other
229,758 (2.9%)
2008
42.8%
54.8%
D
Democrat
3,389,365 (42.8%)
R
✓Republican
4,337,469 (54.8%)
Other
185,241 (2.3%)

Governor

2022
43.9%
54.8%
D
Democrat
3,553,656 (43.9%)
R
✓Republican
4,437,099 (54.8%)
Other
112,153 (1.4%)
2018
42.5%
55.8%
D
Democrat
3,546,615 (42.5%)
R
✓Republican
4,656,196 (55.8%)
Other
140,632 (1.7%)
2014
38.9%
59.3%
D
Democrat
1,835,596 (38.9%)
R
✓Republican
2,796,547 (59.3%)
Other
86,125 (1.8%)
2010
42.3%
55%
D
Democrat
2,106,395 (42.3%)
R
✓Republican
2,737,481 (55%)
Other
135,994 (2.7%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 7

2024
D
Democrat
4,503,423 (41.6%)
R
✓Republican
6,323,324 (58.4%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,750,114 (45.8%)
R
✓Republican
4,429,113 (54.2%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 8

2024
D
Democrat
4,438,107 (41.1%)
R
✓Republican
6,367,307 (58.9%)

Presiding Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals

2024
D
Democrat
4,516,579 (41.7%)
R
✓Republican
6,312,526 (58.3%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,734,179 (45.5%)
R
✓Republican
4,288,913 (52.2%)
Other
187,384 (2.3%)
2012
D
Democrat
3,163,825 (41.2%)
R
✓Republican
4,257,024 (55.5%)
Other
250,457 (3.3%)

Railroad Commissioner

2024
D
Democrat
4,253,597 (38.9%)
R
✓Republican
6,083,012 (55.7%)
Other
584,767 (5.4%)
2022
D
Democrat
3,222,305 (40.5%)
R
✓Republican
4,401,187 (55.4%)
Other
325,059 (4.1%)
2020
D
Democrat
4,792,422 (43.6%)
R
✓Republican
5,831,263 (53%)
Other
377,297 (3.4%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,612,130 (43.9%)
R
✓Republican
4,376,729 (53.2%)
Other
237,984 (2.9%)
2016
D
Democrat
3,362,041 (38.4%)
R
✓Republican
4,648,841 (53.1%)
Other
749,356 (8.6%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,682,796 (36.5%)
R
✓Republican
2,691,417 (58.3%)
Other
239,194 (5.2%)
2012
D
Democrat
3,057,733 (39.6%)
R
✓Republican
4,336,499 (56.2%)
Other
326,665 (4.2%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,757,183 (36.2%)
R
✓Republican
2,880,765 (59.4%)
Other
211,269 (4.4%)
2008
D
Democrat
3,406,174 (44.4%)
R
✓Republican
4,003,789 (52.1%)
Other
270,078 (3.5%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 2

2024
D
Democrat
4,547,473 (41.7%)
R
✓Republican
6,354,547 (58.3%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,838,411 (46.8%)
R
✓Republican
4,358,756 (53.2%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 4

2024
D
Democrat
4,632,447 (42.6%)
R
✓Republican
6,239,243 (57.4%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,792,144 (46.3%)
R
✓Republican
4,399,890 (53.7%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 6

2024
D
Democrat
4,396,353 (40.4%)
R
✓Republican
6,128,741 (56.3%)
Other
354,460 (3.3%)
2020
D
Democrat
4,903,527 (44.8%)
R
✓Republican
6,050,534 (55.2%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,796,001 (46.3%)
R
✓Republican
4,404,602 (53.7%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,677,478 (36.5%)
R
✓Republican
2,772,824 (60.3%)
Other
146,530 (3.2%)
2012
D
Democrat
3,219,948 (41.9%)
R
✓Republican
4,127,493 (53.7%)
Other
335,622 (4.4%)

Agriculture Commissioner

2022
D
Democrat
3,473,603 (43.7%)
R
✓Republican
4,480,186 (56.3%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,822,137 (46.4%)
R
✓Republican
4,221,527 (51.3%)
Other
191,639 (2.3%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,697,227 (36.8%)
R
✓Republican
2,699,508 (58.6%)
Other
210,075 (4.6%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,738,456 (35.8%)
R
✓Republican
2,953,775 (60.8%)
Other
164,035 (3.4%)

Attorney General

2022
D
Democrat
3,497,267 (43.7%)
R
✓Republican
4,278,986 (53.4%)
Other
233,750 (2.9%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,898,098 (47%)
R
✓Republican
4,193,207 (50.6%)
Other
201,310 (2.4%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,773,250 (38%)
R
✓Republican
2,743,473 (58.8%)
Other
147,788 (3.2%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,655,859 (33.7%)
R
✓Republican
3,151,064 (64.1%)
Other
112,118 (2.3%)

Comptroller

2022
D
Democrat
3,265,069 (40.9%)
R
✓Republican
4,496,319 (56.4%)
Other
212,205 (2.7%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,570,693 (43.4%)
R
✓Republican
4,376,828 (53.2%)
Other
281,081 (3.4%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,742,250 (37.7%)
R
✓Republican
2,698,682 (58.4%)
Other
181,869 (3.9%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 5

2022
D
Democrat
3,413,071 (43.1%)
R
✓Republican
4,513,500 (56.9%)
2016
D
Democrat
3,511,950 (40.2%)
R
✓Republican
4,782,144 (54.7%)
Other
441,022 (5%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 6

2022
D
Democrat
3,383,705 (42.8%)
R
✓Republican
4,526,307 (57.2%)
2016
D
Democrat
3,558,844 (40.9%)
R
✓Republican
4,785,012 (55%)
Other
360,167 (4.1%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,759,365 (36.6%)
R
✓Republican
2,906,012 (60.5%)
Other
139,299 (2.9%)

Land Commissioner

2022
D
Democrat
3,350,291 (42.1%)
R
✓Republican
4,463,452 (56.2%)
Other
134,846 (1.7%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,567,927 (43.2%)
R
✓Republican
4,435,202 (53.7%)
Other
258,482 (3.1%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,645,828 (35.3%)
R
✓Republican
2,827,584 (60.7%)
Other
186,538 (4%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,717,518 (35.3%)
R
✓Republican
3,001,736 (61.7%)
Other
148,271 (3%)

Lieutenant Governor

2022
D
Democrat
3,492,544 (43.5%)
R
✓Republican
4,317,692 (53.8%)
Other
222,208 (2.8%)
2018
D
Democrat
3,860,865 (46.5%)
R
✓Republican
4,260,990 (51.3%)
Other
183,516 (2.2%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,813,974 (38.7%)
R
✓Republican
2,724,493 (58.1%)
Other
147,552 (3.1%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,719,202 (34.8%)
R
✓Republican
3,049,109 (61.8%)
Other
167,045 (3.4%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 3

2022
D
Democrat
3,330,529 (41.8%)
R
✓Republican
4,475,136 (56.2%)
Other
162,036 (2%)
2016
D
Democrat
3,378,163 (38.5%)
R
✓Republican
4,807,986 (54.8%)
Other
581,022 (6.6%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,809,498 (37.3%)
R
✓Republican
2,907,796 (59.9%)
Other
138,857 (2.9%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 5

2022
D
Democrat
3,406,054 (42.9%)
R
✓Republican
4,530,668 (57.1%)
2016
D
Democrat
3,608,634 (41.2%)
R
✓Republican
4,758,334 (54.3%)
Other
396,235 (4.5%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,789,646 (37%)
R
✓Republican
2,903,359 (60%)
Other
144,306 (3%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 9

2022
D
Democrat
3,458,103 (43.6%)
R
✓Republican
4,474,900 (56.4%)
2016
D
Democrat
3,445,959 (39.4%)
R
✓Republican
4,884,441 (55.8%)
Other
423,609 (4.8%)
2010
D
Democrat
1,722,753 (35.6%)
R
✓Republican
2,919,054 (60.3%)
Other
195,234 (4%)

Chief Justice, Supreme Court

2020
D
Democrat
4,893,402 (44.5%)
R
✓Republican
5,827,085 (53%)
Other
277,491 (2.5%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,720,343 (37.2%)
R
✓Republican
2,757,218 (59.7%)
Other
141,338 (3.1%)
2008
D
Democrat
3,374,433 (43.8%)
R
✓Republican
4,092,181 (53.1%)
Other
239,063 (3.1%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 3

2020
D
Democrat
4,964,460 (45.5%)
R
✓Republican
5,953,924 (54.5%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,671,921 (36.5%)
R
✓Republican
2,738,412 (59.8%)
Other
165,327 (3.6%)
2008
D
Democrat
3,482,718 (45.5%)
R
✓Republican
3,949,722 (51.6%)
Other
216,060 (2.8%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 4

2020
D
Democrat
4,924,207 (45.2%)
R
✓Republican
5,974,016 (54.8%)
2008
D
Democrat
3,340,754 (43.7%)
R
✓Republican
4,044,788 (53%)
Other
250,672 (3.3%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 9

2020
D
Democrat
4,863,142 (44.7%)
R
✓Republican
6,015,909 (55.3%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 7

2020
D
Democrat
4,861,649 (44.4%)
R
✓Republican
5,843,420 (53.3%)
Other
256,742 (2.3%)
2014
D
Democrat
1,731,031 (37.6%)
R
✓Republican
2,711,363 (58.9%)
Other
161,218 (3.5%)
2008
D
Democrat
3,525,141 (45.9%)
R
✓Republican
3,926,015 (51.1%)
Other
232,211 (3%)

Supreme Court Justice, Place 8

2020
D
Democrat
4,826,674 (44.1%)
R
✓Republican
5,847,135 (53.4%)
Other
274,959 (2.5%)
2008
D
Democrat
3,428,179 (44.6%)
R
✓Republican
4,018,396 (52.3%)
Other
234,092 (3%)

U.S. House Composite

2020
D
Democrat
4,896,673 (44.1%)
R
✓Republican
5,926,712 (53.4%)
Other
270,241 (2.4%)

Court of Criminal Appeals Judge, Place 2

2016
D
Democrat
3,496,205 (40%)
R
✓Republican
4,790,800 (54.9%)
Other
443,035 (5.1%)

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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February 19, 2026
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Report Shorts (Feb. 5, 2026)

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 5, 2026)

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
July 24, 2025
Likely Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Republican
July 10, 2020
Lean Republican
June 28, 2019
Likely Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
January 25, 2013
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7