Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New Hampshire
Senate II

State Map

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Current Rating

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Tilt D

Baseline

What's This?
D +2.3
D: 50.4%, R: 48.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Cygnal (R)/Beacon Research (D) for the Michigan Enjoyer

51% D C. Pappas
43% R J. Sununu
Source: YouGov Sep 28 – Oct 5, 2026

St. Anselm's College for AARP

51% D C. Pappas
44% R J. Sununu
Source: St. Anselm's College Sep 28 – Sep 29, 2026

co/efficient (R)

46% R J. Sununu
46% D C. Pappas
Source: co/efficient Sep 9 – Sep 11, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
12
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
SEP
8
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

New Hampshire Primary Results

September 9, 2026
by Inshara Ali & Jacob Rubashkin

Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

New Hampshire Senate: Sununu Bid Boosts Republican Chances

October 22, 2025
by Nathan L. Gonzales

Senate & Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 11, 2025)

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 15, 2026
Tilt Democrat
September 3, 2026
Toss-up
October 22, 2025
Tilt Democrat
July 24, 2025
Lean Democrat
April 17, 2025
Battleground Democrat
January 9, 2025
Battleground Democrat
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2020
Solid Democrat
January 4, 2019
Likely Democrat
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
October 24, 2014
Tilt Democrat
September 12, 2014
Lean Democrat
January 25, 2013
Likely Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+2.3D 50.4, R 48.1
2024
+2.3
2022
+2.1
2020
+2.8
2018
+3.3
2016
+2.2
2014
+5.5