Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Montana
Senate II

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid R

Baseline

What's This?
R +15.5
D: 41.1%, R: 56.6%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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American Pulse Research & Polling (R) for KULR-TV

45% R K. Alme
26% I S. Bodnar
19% D A. Bankhead
Source: American Pulse Research & Polling Sep 19 – Sep 24, 2026

Aspect Strategic for Montana Freedom PAC (pro-Bodnar)

44% R K. Alme
32% I S. Bodnar
14% D A. Bankhead
Source: Aspect Strategic Sep 7 – Sep 15, 2026

Rutgers Univ. for Montana Free Press

38% R K. Alme
30% I S. Bodnar
15% D A. Bankhead
5% I K. Austin
Source: Rutgers University Aug 27 – Sep 7, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
9
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (July 23, 2026)

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nathan L. Gonzales

Montana Senate: New Poll Confirms GOP Edge

June 30, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Montana Senate: Daines’ Drop Inserts Uncertainty

March 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Kentucky – New Mexico

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
June 25, 2026
Solid Republican
April 23, 2026
Likely Republican
March 5, 2026
Likely Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Toss-up
July 10, 2020
Toss-up
March 9, 2020
Lean Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
August 29, 2014
Solid Republican
August 7, 2014
Likely Republican
July 24, 2014
Lean Republican
February 7, 2014
Tilt Republican
August 9, 2013
Tilt Republican
April 23, 2013
Toss-up
January 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+15.5D 41.1, R 56.6
2024
+15.5
2022
+11.7
2020
+11.9
2018
+6.6
2016
+8.7
2014
+1.3