Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Maine
Senate II

State Map

State map

Current Rating

See All
Toss-up

Baseline

What's This?
D +9.4
D: 52.4%, R: 43%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Show AllHide

Campaign Finance Data

Loading finance data...

Polls

See All

CNN/SSRS

49% D T. Jackson
45% R S. Collins
Source: CNN/SSRS Oct 20 – Oct 26, 2026

Marist University

49% D T. Jackson
47% R S. Collins
Source: Marist University Oct 22 – Oct 25, 2026

Echelon Insights (R) for NetChoice

51% D T. Jackson
44% R S. Collins
Source: Echelon Insights Oct 16 – Oct 23, 2026

Trafalgar Group (R)

47% R S. Collins
47% D T. Jackson
Source: Trafalgar Group Oct 21 – Oct 23, 2026

Beacon/Shaw for Fox News

49% R S. Collins
49% D T. Jackson
Source: Beacon Research (D)/Shaw (R) Oct 16 – Oct 20, 2026

InsiderAdvantage (R)

49% D T. Jackson
47% R S. Collins
Source: InsiderAdvantage Oct 13 – Oct 14, 2026

Suffolk Univ. for USA Today

49% D T. Jackson
47% R S. Collins
Source: Suffolk University Oct 8 – Oct 11, 2026

Washington Post/George Mason Univ.

50% D T. Jackson
46% R S. Collins
Source: Washington Post/George Mason University Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2026

Marist University

51% D T. Jackson
47% R S. Collins
Source: Marist University Oct 1 – Oct 4, 2026

co/efficient (R)

48% R S. Collins
46% D T. Jackson
Source: co/efficient Sep 28 – Sep 30, 2026

Siena Univ./New York Times/Portland Press Herald

49% R S. Collins
46% D T. Jackson
Source: Siena Univ./New York Times/Portland Press Herald Sep 15 – Sep 22, 2026

YouGov

48% D T. Jackson
44% R S. Collins
Source: YouGov Sep 2 – Sep 8, 2026

CNN/SSRS

48% R T. Jackson
45% R S. Collins
Source: CNN/SSRS Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2026

Past Elections

Subscribe

To view past election results you'll need to have access to an active subscription.

Sign UpLogin

Share

Twitter (X) Facebook Email

Calendar

See All
MAR
15
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
9
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Where White Women Could Swing in November

October 15, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Maine Senate: Troy’s Odyssey

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Senate Report Shorts (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Primary Results in Maine, Nevada and South Carolina

June 10, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Maine Senate: Corner of the Country, Center of the Battleground

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Dec. 18, 2025)

December 18, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
September 17, 2026
Toss-up
July 24, 2025
Tilt Republican
January 9, 2025
Battleground Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 1, 2020
Tilt Democrat
April 3, 2020
Toss-up
January 4, 2019
Tilt Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
July 30, 2013
Solid Republican
January 25, 2013
Likely Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+9.4D 52.4, R 43.0
2024
+9.4
2022
+8.8
2020
+4.3
2018
+7.6
2016
+7.1
2014
+7.3