Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Kansas
Senate II

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Likely R

Baseline

What's This?
R +14.0
D: 41.9%, R: 55.9%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Public Policy Polling for Senate Majority PAC (D)

46% R R. Marshall
45% D A. Hamilton
Source: Public Policy Polling Aug 7 – Aug 8, 2026

GBAO (D)

30% D A. Hamilton
13% D C. Davis
10% D N. Taylor
5% D P. Schmidt
Source: Hamilton Campaign Jul 13 – Jul 16, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
1
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Primary Results in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, Virginia and Washington

August 5, 2026
by Nicholas Demba & Jacob Rubashkin

Senate Report Shorts (July 23, 2026)

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nathan L. Gonzales

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
September 3, 2026
Likely Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Tilt Republican
October 16, 2020
Tilt Republican
January 8, 2020
Lean Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
October 3, 2014
Toss-up
September 4, 2014
Tilt Republican
August 29, 2014
Likely Republican
January 25, 2013
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+14.0D 41.9, R 55.9
2024
+14.0
2022
+14.8
2020
+18.4
2018
+19.6
2016
+24.8
2014
+23.4