Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Alaska
Senate II

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

Baseline

What's This?
R +9.4
D: 43.3%, R: 52.7%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Data for Progress (D)

49% D M. Peltola
46% R D. Sullivan
4% R D. Sullivan
1% R G. Heikes
Source: Data for Progress Oct 8 – Oct 16, 2026

InsiderAdvantage (R)

50% D M. Peltola
48% R D. Sullivan
Source: InsiderAdvantage Oct 9 – Oct 10, 2026

Alaska Survey Research

47% D M. Peltola
45% R D. Sullivan
5% R D. Sullivan
3% R G. Heikes
Source: Alaska Survey Research Oct 1 – Oct 3, 2026

New York Times/Siena University

50% D M. Peltola
43% R D. Sullivan
Source: New York Times/Siena University Sep 24 – Oct 1, 2026

Trafalgar Group (R)

47% R D. Sullivan
46% D M. Peltola
3% R D. Sullivan
1% R G. Heikes
Source: Trafalgar Group Sep 22 – Sep 24, 2026

co/efficient (R)

48% R D. Sullivan
46% D M. Peltola
1% R D. Sullivan
1% R G. Heikes
Source: co/efficient Sep 14 – Sep 17, 2026

Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) for AARP

53% D M. Peltola
47% R D. Sullivan
Source: Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research Sep 8 – Sep 11, 2026

Alaska Survey Research

50% D M. Peltola
44% R D. Sullivan
Source: Alaska Survey Research Apr 16 – Apr 19, 2026

Alaska Survey Research

51% D M. Peltola
48% R D. Sullivan
Source: Alaska Survey Research Mar 19 – Mar 22, 2026

Public Policy Polling (PPP)

49% D M. Peltola
47% R D. Sullivan
Source: DSCC Jan 16 – Jan 17, 2026

Tyson Group

43% D M. Peltola
39% R D. Sullivan
Source: Plymouth Union Public Advocacy Nov 11 – Nov 13, 2025

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
1
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Senate Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Alaska Senate: Democrats Reach Into The Red

March 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Jan. 8, 2026)

January 8, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (Oct. 23, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 Senate Overview (July 24, 2025): Alabama – Kansas

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 1, 2026
Toss-up
September 3, 2026
Tilt Republican
January 12, 2026
Lean Republican
January 9, 2025
Solid Republican
2022
January 8, 2021
Not Up This Cycle
2020
December 15, 2020
Lean Republican
October 28, 2020
Lean Republican
July 10, 2020
Likely Republican
January 4, 2019
Solid Republican
2016
January 9, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
October 13, 2014
Tilt Republican
September 24, 2014
Toss-up
May 21, 2013
Tilt Democrat
January 25, 2013
Lean Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+9.4D 43.3, R 52.7
2024
+9.4
2022
+13.3
2020
+9.9
2018
+12.4
2016
+18.6
2014
+15.7