Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Virginia
Senate I

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +6.8
D: 53.1%, R: 46.3%

Incumbent

Kaine

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
APR
21
2026
Redistricting Referendum
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes

May 8, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia 2: A Rematch at the Beach

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia House: Four House Races Shift To Democrats

April 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
July 28, 2023
Solid Democrat
January 6, 2023
Battleground Democrat
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
January 5, 2018
Solid Democrat
January 13, 2017
Likely Democrat
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
February 10, 2011
Toss-up
January 28, 2011
Tilt Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+6.8D 53.1, R 46.3
2024
+5.0
2022
+5.5
2020
+8.1
2018
+5.1
2016
+3.1
2014
+0.0