Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Senate I

State Map

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Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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Incumbent

Cruz

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

May 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas 34: New Flores, New District, Same Gonzalez

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
October 31, 2024
Tilt Republican
September 26, 2024
Lean Republican
July 28, 2023
Likely Republican
May 12, 2023
Battleground Republican
January 6, 2023
Solid Republican
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
April 20, 2018
Likely Republican
January 13, 2017
Solid Republican
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
January 28, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7