Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Senate I

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State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Senate Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
October 31, 2024
Tilt Republican
September 26, 2024
Lean Republican
July 28, 2023
Likely Republican
May 12, 2023
Battleground Republican
January 6, 2023
Solid Republican
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
April 20, 2018
Likely Republican
January 13, 2017
Solid Republican
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
January 28, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7