Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Michigan
Senate I

State Map

State map

Current Rating

See All
Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
D +4.5
D: 51%, R: 46.5%

Incumbent

Slotkin

Past Elections

Subscribe

To view past election results you'll need to have access to an active subscription.

Sign UpLogin

Share

Twitter (X) Facebook Email

Calendar

See All
APR
21
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

First-Time Candidates Enter the Ring in Key House Race

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
February 9, 2024
Tilt Democrat
July 28, 2023
Lean Democrat
January 6, 2023
Battleground Democrat
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
January 13, 2017
Solid Democrat
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
September 28, 2012
Solid Democrat
January 28, 2011
Likely Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+4.5D 51.0, R 46.5
2024
+4.5
2022
+5.0
2020
+1.9
2018
+3.7
2016
+1.4
2014
+1.8