Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Florida
Senate I

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.3
D: 44.5%, R: 54.8%
May 4, 2026
On May 4, 2026, Florida passed a new congressional map designed to help Republicans pick up as many as four additional seats in the fall.
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Incumbent

Scott

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
24
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
18
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes

May 8, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Florida House: Redistricting Boosts GOP prospects

May 5, 2026
by Bradley Wascher & Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
September 26, 2024
Likely Republican
January 6, 2023
Solid Republican
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
November 1, 2018
Tilt Democrat
April 9, 2018
Toss-up
January 13, 2017
Tilt Democrat
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
November 2, 2012
Likely Democrat
September 28, 2012
Lean Democrat
August 10, 2012
Tilt Democrat
April 20, 2012
Lean Democrat
April 8, 2011
Tilt Democrat
January 28, 2011
Lean Democrat
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+10.3D 44.5, R 54.8
2024
+10.3
2022
+8.8
2020
+5.6
2018
+4.5
2016
+8.9
2014
+8.6