Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Arizona
Senate I

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Not Up This Cycle

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +1.3
D: 49.1%, R: 50.4%

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUL
21
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
January 9, 2025
Not Up This Cycle
2024
October 10, 2024
Lean Democrat
May 9, 2024
Tilt Democrat
July 28, 2023
Toss-up
January 6, 2023
Battleground Independent
2020
January 4, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
November 1, 2018
Tilt Democrat
October 25, 2017
Toss-up
September 29, 2017
Toss-up
August 18, 2017
Tilt Republican
July 7, 2017
Lean Republican
January 13, 2017
Likely Republican
2014
January 25, 2013
Not Up This Cycle
2012
October 5, 2012
Tilt Republican
February 24, 2012
Lean Republican
August 1, 2011
Likely Republican
February 10, 2011
Lean Republican
January 28, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
June 24, 2010
Not Up This Cycle

Baselines

About
2025+1.3D 49.1, R 50.4
2024
+1.3
2022
+1.8
2020
+3.5
2018
+4.9
2016
+9.4
2014
+8.8