Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Wisconsin
3rd District

Southwestern Wisconsin

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

2024 Baseline

What's This?
R +1.1
D: 48.7%, R: 49.8%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
1
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
11
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (April 9, 2026)

April 9, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Wisconsin 3: Drifting Red or Drifting Blue?

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (March 20, 2025)

March 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
June 12, 2026
Toss-up
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
March 7, 2025
Tilt Republican
2024
October 31, 2024
Tilt Republican
September 12, 2024
Lean Republican
December 1, 2023
Likely Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
March 15, 2022
Lean Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Solid Democrat
October 1, 2020
Likely Democrat
February 21, 2020
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
February 16, 2018
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Democrat
February 27, 2017
Likely Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Democrat
October 7, 2011
Solid Democrat
2010
September 24, 2010
Likely Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat