Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Virginia
10th District

Southwestern D.C. suburbs and exurbs

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Solid D

2025 Baseline

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D +15.9
D: 57.5%, R: 41.6%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
APR
21
2026
Redistricting Referendum
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia 2: A Rematch at the Beach

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia House: Four House Races Shift To Democrats

April 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia Redistricting: Democrats Pushing for Four More Seats

April 9, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

November 5, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
2024
June 20, 2024
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Likely Democrat
November 13, 2023
Likely Democrat
March 10, 2023
Likely Democrat
2022
October 21, 2022
Likely Democrat
February 8, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
August 17, 2018
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
November 10, 2017
Toss-up
May 19, 2017
Tilt Republican
February 27, 2017
Lean Republican
2016
October 14, 2016
Tilt Republican
December 4, 2015
Lean Republican
April 3, 2015
Lean Republican
2014
January 6, 2014
Lean Republican
December 17, 2013
Lean Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
January 27, 2012
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010