Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Virginia
5th District

Charlottesville and western Southside Virginia

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Solid R

2025 Baseline

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D +7.1
D: 53.2%, R: 46.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
APR
21
2026
Redistricting Referendum
AUG
4
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia 2: A Rematch at the Beach

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia House: Four House Races Shift To Democrats

April 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Virginia Redistricting: Democrats Pushing for Four More Seats

April 9, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

November 5, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
August 29, 2024
Solid Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
2022
February 8, 2022
Solid Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Toss-up
October 16, 2020
Tilt Republican
October 1, 2020
Lean Republican
August 7, 2020
Likely Republican
July 24, 2020
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
2018
June 1, 2018
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
September 1, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
November 3, 2016
Likely Republican
October 21, 2016
Lean Republican
January 8, 2016
Solid Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
January 27, 2012
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Tilt Republican