Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
21st District

Northern San Antonio and Texas Hill Country

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2022)

Current Rating

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Solid R

Baseline

What's This?
R +22.7
D: 37.9%, R: 60.6%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (July 23, 2026)

July 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nathan L. Gonzales

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

May 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas 34: New Flores, New District, Same Gonzalez

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
August 28, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
2022
December 3, 2021
Solid Republican
November 15, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
August 7, 2020
Tilt Republican
May 22, 2020
Lean Republican
December 6, 2019
Likely Republican
February 15, 2019
Likely Republican
2018
May 16, 2018
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
November 7, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican