Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
15th District

McAllen in the Rio Grande Valley to the outer San Antonio metro area

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2022)

Current Rating

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Lean R

2024 Baseline

What's This?
R +1.7
D: 48.4%, R: 50.1%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Cornyn Loss Headlines Texas Primary Runoff Results

May 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas 34: New Flores, New District, Same Gonzalez

May 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Texas: Republicans, Democrats Face Critical Early Primaries

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
June 12, 2026
Lean Republican
December 5, 2025
Likely Republican
March 7, 2025
Likely Republican
2024
September 12, 2024
Likely Republican
December 1, 2023
Lean Republican
March 10, 2023
Lean Republican
2022
August 25, 2022
Lean Republican
January 10, 2022
Tilt Republican
December 3, 2021
Tilt Republican
November 15, 2021
Tilt Republican
2020
September 18, 2020
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
March 25, 2016
Solid Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
December 2, 2011
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010