Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Pennsylvania
10th District

Harrisburg and York areas

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

2024 Baseline

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R +4.5
D: 46.6%, R: 51.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
10
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
19
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

May 20, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Pennsylvania 8: Paiging the Incumbent

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Report Shorts (July 24, 2025)

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Pennsylvania 10: Familiar Faces

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
May 21, 2026
Toss-up
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
March 7, 2025
Tilt Republican
2024
September 12, 2024
Tilt Republican
January 3, 2024
Lean Republican
December 15, 2023
Lean Republican
December 1, 2023
Likely Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
March 11, 2022
Solid Republican
2020
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
December 6, 2019
Tilt Republican
February 15, 2019
Tilt Republican
2018
September 28, 2018
Lean Republican
February 20, 2018
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
January 13, 2012
Solid Republican
2010
October 22, 2010
Toss-up
September 7, 2010
Tilt Democrat
August 23, 2010