Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Oklahoma
5th District

Oklahoma City area

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Likely R

Baseline

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R +16.6
D: 40%, R: 56.6%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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GBAO (D) for Nelson

48% R S. Bice
43% D J. Nelson
Source: GBAO Sep 17 – Sep 20, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
3
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
16
2026
Primary Election Day
AUG
25
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

October 1, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Runoff Results in Georgia, Oklahoma and South Carolina

August 26, 2026
by Inshara Ali

Untangling the Democratic Dark Money Web Funding Independent Candidates

August 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma

June 17, 2026
by Nicholas Demba, Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Report Shorts (March 26, 2026)

March 26, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 20, 2025)

February 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Likely Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
2022
January 10, 2022
Solid Republican
December 22, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
December 6, 2019
Toss-up
February 15, 2019
Toss-up
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
May 13, 2014
Solid Republican
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican
May 12, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican