Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Ohio
9th District

Toledo area and northwestern Ohio

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2022)

Current Rating

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Tilt D

Baseline

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R +8.2
D: 45.2%, R: 53.4%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Polls

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DCCC Targeting & Analytics (D) for DCCC

48% D M. Kaptur
48% R D. Merrin
Source: DCCC Analytics Sep 22 – Sep 23, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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FEB
4
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
5
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

The Issues Fueling the Most Expensive Ad War in Midterm History

October 26, 2026
by Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Where White Women Could Swing in November

October 15, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

House Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

October 1, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Ohio 7: Miller Makes a Toss-up

August 10, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Ohio & Indiana Primaries: Republicans Choose Challengers in Key House Races

May 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Tilt Democrat
October 15, 2026
Toss-up
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
October 31, 2025
Tilt Republican
2024
March 28, 2024
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2023
Lean Democrat
September 12, 2023
Lean Democrat
2022
October 7, 2022
Lean Democrat
September 23, 2022
Tilt Democrat
January 10, 2022
Toss-up
December 16, 2021
Toss-up
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
May 4, 2012
Solid Democrat
December 2, 2011
Solid Democrat
October 7, 2011
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat