Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Ohio
1st District

Cincinnati area

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2022)

Current Rating

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Tilt D

2024 Baseline

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R +5.0
D: 46.9%, R: 51.9%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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FEB
4
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
5
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Ohio & Indiana Primaries: Republicans Choose Challengers in Key House Races

May 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

A Detailed Analysis of Ohio’s New Congressional Map

October 31, 2025
by Nathaniel Rakich

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
June 12, 2026
Tilt Democrat
December 5, 2025
Toss-up
November 6, 2025
Tilt Democrat
October 31, 2025
Toss-up
2024
October 10, 2024
Solid Democrat
March 28, 2024
Likely Democrat
December 1, 2023
Lean Democrat
September 12, 2023
Lean Democrat
2022
April 22, 2022
Toss-up
January 10, 2022
Lean Republican
December 16, 2021
Lean Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Tilt Democrat
August 7, 2020
Toss-up
December 6, 2019
Lean Republican
February 15, 2019
Lean Republican
2018
October 26, 2018
Tilt Republican
August 17, 2018
Lean Republican
May 16, 2018
Likely Republican
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican
October 7, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
October 15, 2010
Likely Republican
August 23, 2010
Lean Republican