Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New York
4th District

Southern Nassau County

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2024)

Current Rating

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Tilt D

Baseline

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D +8.5
D: 53.6%, R: 45.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
23
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Maryland, New York, Utah and South Carolina Primary Results

June 24, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Tilt Democrat
March 7, 2025
Tilt Democrat
2024
October 31, 2024
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2023
Toss-up
March 10, 2023
Toss-up
2022
November 3, 2022
Tilt Democrat
October 21, 2022
Lean Democrat
August 25, 2022
Likely Democrat
May 25, 2022
Solid Democrat
February 18, 2022
Likely Democrat
February 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
September 18, 2020
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
January 8, 2014
Solid Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat