Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New York
3rd District

Northern Nassau County

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2024)

Current Rating

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Lean D

Baseline

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D +6.1
D: 51.8%, R: 45.7%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
23
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Maryland, New York, Utah and South Carolina Primary Results

June 24, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Lean Democrat
March 7, 2025
Lean Democrat
2024
October 10, 2024
Solid Democrat
March 28, 2024
Likely Democrat
February 14, 2024
Lean Democrat
January 3, 2024
Toss-up
December 1, 2023
Toss-up
March 10, 2023
Toss-up
2022
October 21, 2022
Tilt Democrat
May 25, 2022
Lean Democrat
May 20, 2022
Toss-up
February 11, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
October 14, 2016
Lean Democrat
January 8, 2016
Tilt Democrat
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
March 23, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican