Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New York
1st District

Eastern Long Island and north shore of Suffolk County

District Map

District map
Current (2024) Previous (2022)

Current Rating

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Solid R

2024 Baseline

What's This?
R +4.4
D: 46.7%, R: 51.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
23
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Maryland, New York, Utah and South Carolina Primary Results

June 24, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Report Shorts (July 24, 2025)

July 24, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
October 10, 2024
Likely Republican
December 1, 2023
Lean Republican
March 10, 2023
Lean Republican
2022
November 3, 2022
Lean Republican
May 25, 2022
Tilt Republican
May 20, 2022
Lean Republican
February 11, 2022
Lean Democrat
2020
October 16, 2020
Lean Republican
December 6, 2019
Likely Republican
February 15, 2019
Likely Republican
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
November 3, 2016
Lean Republican
December 4, 2015
Tilt Republican
October 1, 2015
Tilt Republican
April 3, 2015
Lean Republican
2014
October 29, 2014
Toss-up
October 3, 2014
Tilt Democrat
December 17, 2013
Lean Democrat
September 27, 2013
Lean Democrat
March 8, 2013
Likely Democrat
2012
November 2, 2012
Tilt Democrat
September 28, 2012
Lean Democrat
July 27, 2012
Tilt Democrat
March 23, 2012
Toss-up
2010
September 24, 2010
Tilt Democrat
August 23, 2010
Lean Democrat