Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Nevada
4th District

Northern Las Vegas area and rural central Nevada

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Likely D

2024 Baseline

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D +7.3
D: 51.6%, R: 44.3%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
13
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
9
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

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June 10, 2026
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House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
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2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): Kansas – New York

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Likely Democrat
March 7, 2025
Lean Democrat
2024
October 18, 2024
Solid Democrat
December 1, 2023
Likely Democrat
March 10, 2023
Likely Democrat
2022
May 20, 2022
Lean Democrat
January 10, 2022
Likely Democrat
December 3, 2021
Likely Democrat
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
October 12, 2018
Lean Democrat
January 10, 2018
Likely Democrat
December 1, 2017
Likely Democrat
September 1, 2017
Likely Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Tilt Democrat
April 3, 2015
Tilt Democrat
2014
October 29, 2014
Likely Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
October 26, 2012
Toss-up
October 12, 2012
Tilt Democrat
December 2, 2011
Lean Democrat
November 4, 2011
Lean Democrat