Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

New Jersey
5th District

Northwestern New York City suburbs and exurbs

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Solid D

2025 Baseline

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D +7.5
D: 52.9%, R: 45.4%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
23
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

June 4, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 21, 2026)

May 21, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Attorney Married to Ex-NFL Star Explores Run For Congress

December 4, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

November 5, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Solid Democrat
2024
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
2022
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
June 6, 2018
Solid Democrat
May 16, 2018
Lean Democrat
February 16, 2018
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
February 27, 2017
Toss-up
2016
November 3, 2016
Tilt Democrat
October 21, 2016
Toss-up
September 30, 2016
Tilt Republican
September 2, 2016
Lean Republican
December 4, 2015
Likely Republican
August 11, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
April 6, 2012
Solid Republican
January 13, 2012
Likely Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican