Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
1st District

Northeastern North Carolina

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2024)

Current Rating

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Tilt D

Baseline

What's This?
R +7.9
D: 45.8%, R: 53.7%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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co/efficient (R) for Buckhout

43% R L. Buckhout
42% D D. Davis
2% I T. Bailey
Source: co/efficient Oct 6 – Oct 8, 2026

Neighborhood Research (R)

51% D D. Davis
41% R L. Buckhout
Source: Neighborhood Research Oct 1 – Oct 6, 2026

GQR (D) for Davis

47% D D. Davis
39% R L. Buckhout
8% I T. Bailey
Source: GQR Sep 29 – Oct 4, 2026

GBAO (D) for House Majority PAC

50% D D. Davis
43% R L. Buckhout
Source: GBAO Sep 8 – Sep 11, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

The Issues Fueling the Most Expensive Ad War in Midterm History

October 26, 2026
by Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Where White Women Could Swing in November

October 15, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

House Report Shorts (Sept. 17, 2026)

September 17, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Tilt Democrat
October 15, 2026
Toss-up
September 17, 2026
Tilt Republican
May 8, 2026
Lean Republican
March 12, 2026
Lean Republican
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
October 23, 2025
Tilt Republican
March 7, 2025
Toss-up
2024
October 10, 2024
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2023
Toss-up
October 27, 2023
Toss-up
2022
October 21, 2022
Likely Democrat
March 18, 2022
Lean Democrat
December 3, 2021
Solid Republican
November 19, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Democrat
July 18, 2011
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat