Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

North Carolina
1st District

Inland northeastern North Carolina

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2024)

Current Rating

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Lean R

2024 Baseline

What's This?
R +7.9
D: 45.8%, R: 53.7%
October 22, 2025
The GOP-controlled North Carolina legislature redrew the state's congressional map in October 2025 to help Republicans gain a seat in the fall.
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2026 Election

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
19
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
12
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2026): North Carolina – Wisconsin

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

A Detailed Analysis of North Carolina’s New Congressional Map

October 24, 2025
by Nathaniel Rakich

Report Shorts (Oct. 23, 2025)

October 23, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): North Carolina – Wisconsin

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
May 8, 2026
Lean Republican
March 12, 2026
Lean Republican
December 5, 2025
Tilt Republican
October 23, 2025
Tilt Republican
March 7, 2025
Toss-up
2024
October 10, 2024
Tilt Democrat
December 1, 2023
Toss-up
October 27, 2023
Toss-up
2022
October 21, 2022
Likely Democrat
March 18, 2022
Lean Democrat
December 3, 2021
Solid Republican
November 19, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Democrat
July 18, 2011
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat