Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Montana
1st District

Western Montana

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

Baseline

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R +7.2
D: 45.4%, R: 52.6%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Emerson College for Poll Vault

50% D S. Forstag
46% R A. Flint
Source: Emerson College Oct 12 – Oct 14, 2026

Public Policy Polling (D) for House Majority PAC

48% D S. Forstag
45% R A. Flint
Source: Public Policy Polling Oct 12 – Oct 14, 2026

American Pulse Research and Polling

46% R A. Flint
45% D S. Forstag
5% I N. Sheedy
Source: American Pulse Research & Polling Sep 19 – Sep 24, 2026

Impact Research (D) for Forstag

47% D S. Forstag
44% R A. Flint
2% I N. Sheedy
Source: Impact Research Sep 20 – Sep 23, 2026

Public Policy Polling (D) for The Bench

45% D S. Forstag
43% R A. Flint
Source: Public Policy Polling Sep 9 – Sep 10, 2026

Rutgers Univ. for the Montana Free Press

42% R A. Flint
41% D S. Forstag
5% I N. Sheedy
Source: Rutgers University Aug 27 – Sep 7, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
9
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

October 1, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Sept. 17, 2026)

September 17, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Untangling the Democratic Dark Money Web Funding Independent Candidates

August 7, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Independents’ Day: Third-Party and Independent Candidates to Watch

August 6, 2026
by Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (July 9, 2026)

July 9, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

June 4, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Toss-up
October 15, 2026
Tilt Republican
October 1, 2026
Lean Republican
May 8, 2026
Likely Republican
March 12, 2026
Likely Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Lean Republican
September 15, 2023
Lean Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
October 7, 2022
Lean Republican
December 3, 2021
Likely Republican
November 19, 2021
Likely Republican
2020
August 7, 2020
Lean Republican
May 22, 2020
Likely Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
June 14, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
2018
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
November 10, 2017
Likely Republican
June 2, 2017
Lean Republican
May 19, 2017
Tilt Republican
April 21, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
October 14, 2016
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
October 29, 2014
Solid Republican
January 31, 2014
Likely Republican
December 17, 2013
Likely Republican
September 27, 2013
Likely Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
October 5, 2012
Solid Republican
December 2, 2011
Likely Republican
October 7, 2011
Likely Republican
February 1, 2011
Solid Republican
January 20, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican