Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Montana
1st District

Western Montana

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District map

Current Rating

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Likely R

2024 Baseline

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R +7.2
D: 45.4%, R: 52.6%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
9
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

June 4, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): Kansas – New York

March 7, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
May 8, 2026
Likely Republican
March 12, 2026
Likely Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Lean Republican
September 15, 2023
Lean Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
October 7, 2022
Lean Republican
December 3, 2021
Likely Republican
November 19, 2021
Likely Republican
2020
August 7, 2020
Lean Republican
May 22, 2020
Likely Republican
December 6, 2019
Solid Republican
June 14, 2019
Solid Republican
February 15, 2019
Solid Republican
2018
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
November 10, 2017
Likely Republican
June 2, 2017
Lean Republican
May 19, 2017
Tilt Republican
April 21, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
October 14, 2016
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
October 29, 2014
Solid Republican
January 31, 2014
Likely Republican
December 17, 2013
Likely Republican
September 27, 2013
Likely Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
October 5, 2012
Solid Republican
December 2, 2011
Likely Republican
October 7, 2011
Likely Republican
February 1, 2011
Solid Republican
January 20, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican