Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Minnesota
1st District

Southern Minnesota

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Lean R

Baseline

What's This?
R +7.1
D: 44.6%, R: 51.7%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidate

Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Public Policy Polling (D) for House Majority PAC

43% R B. Finstad
43% D J. Johnson
Source: Public Policy Polling Oct 13 – Oct 14, 2026

SurveyUSA for ABC6

46% D J. Johnson
44% R B. Finstad
Source: SurveyUSA Oct 4 – Oct 12, 2026

GBAO (D) for House Majority PAC

47% D J. Johnson
46% R B. Finstad
Source: GBAO Sep 18 – Sep 21, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JUN
2
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
AUG
11
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Sept. 3, 2026)

September 3, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Connecticut, Minnesota, South Carolina, Vermont and Wisconsin

August 12, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 5, 2026)

February 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Dec. 18, 2025)

December 18, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky – New York

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Lean Republican
September 3, 2026
Likely Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
2022
February 18, 2022
Solid Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Tilt Democrat
October 16, 2020
Toss-up
December 6, 2019
Tilt Republican
November 26, 2019
Tilt Republican
February 15, 2019
Lean Republican
2018
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
March 27, 2017
Toss-up
February 27, 2017
Lean Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
February 24, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
September 24, 2010
Likely Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat