Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Kentucky
6th District

Greater Lexington area

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Toss-up

Baseline

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R +8.9
D: 44.5%, R: 53.4%

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

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Campaign Finance Data

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Polls

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Public Policy Polling (D) for House Majority PAC

47% D Z. Dembo
41% R R. Alvarado
Source: Public Policy Polling Oct 19 – Oct 20, 2026

DCCC Analytics (D) for DCCC

46% D Z. Dembo
40% R R. Alvarado
5% I B. Jay
1% I P. Lynch
Source: DCCC Analytics Oct 2 – Oct 5, 2026

Change Research for Kentuckians Not Corruption (pro-Dembo)

47% D Z. Dembo
38% R R. Alvarado
Source: Change Research Sep 29 – Oct 5, 2026

GQR for Dembo

42% D Z. Dembo
37% R R. Alvarado
Source: GQR Sep 25 – Sep 30, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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JAN
9
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAY
19
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

October 1, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

House Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Kentucky 6: New Poll Fuels Democratic Optimism

July 10, 2026
by Inshara Ali

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oregon Primary Results

May 20, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Kentucky – New York

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Kentucky – New York

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Oct. 9, 2025)

October 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Coverage

Daniel Cameron looks to faith as GOP Senate race comes to a close on Election Day

May 26, 2026
Lexington Herald-Leader

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Toss-up
October 15, 2026
Tilt Republican
October 1, 2026
Lean Republican
August 20, 2026
Likely Republican
December 5, 2025
Solid Republican
March 7, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
2022
February 18, 2022
Solid Republican
2020
February 21, 2020
Solid Republican
December 6, 2019
Likely Republican
February 15, 2019
Likely Republican
2018
August 3, 2018
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
September 1, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
November 2, 2012
Toss-up
October 19, 2012
Tilt Democrat
October 5, 2012
Lean Democrat
April 6, 2012
Likely Democrat
February 10, 2012
Lean Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Lean Democrat