Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Iowa
1st District

Southeastern Iowa

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Current Rating

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Toss-up

2024 Baseline

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R +1.9
D: 48.2%, R: 50.1%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
13
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Primary Results in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota

June 4, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Iowa 3: Will a Wave Crash on Nunn?

April 9, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Senate Report Shorts (Aug. 28, 2025)

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (June 20, 2025)

June 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Toss-up
March 7, 2025
Toss-up
2024
October 31, 2024
Tilt Democrat
September 26, 2024
Toss-up
September 12, 2024
Tilt Republican
December 1, 2023
Lean Republican
September 15, 2023
Lean Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
August 25, 2022
Lean Republican
December 3, 2021
Likely Republican
November 11, 2021
Likely Republican
2020
October 28, 2020
Lean Democrat
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Tilt Democrat
2018
September 28, 2018
Lean Democrat
September 14, 2018
Tilt Democrat
May 16, 2018
Toss-up
February 16, 2018
Tilt Republican
December 1, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Lean Republican
2016
October 14, 2016
Toss-up
December 4, 2015
Tilt Democrat
August 11, 2015
Tilt Democrat
April 3, 2015
Toss-up
2014
October 29, 2014
Toss-up
October 17, 2014
Tilt Democrat
October 10, 2014
Lean Democrat
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
July 19, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Democrat
May 12, 2011
Solid Democrat
2010
October 22, 2010
Likely Democrat
August 23, 2010
Solid Democrat