Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

California
49th District

Coastal southern Orange and northern San Diego counties

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2022)

Current Rating

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Solid D

2024 Baseline

What's This?
D +6.0
D: 52.9%, R: 46.9%
November 4, 2025
California voters approved a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 cycles that was drawn to help Democrats flip an additional 3 to 5 seats.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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MAR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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House Report Shorts (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Primary Results in Alabama, Georgia and Oklahoma

June 17, 2026
by Nicholas Demba, Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

California Primary Results: Counting Continues But Clarity in Sight

June 5, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

California House: Voters Enact New Map That Benefits Democrats

November 6, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
November 6, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Lean Democrat
2024
October 31, 2024
Lean Democrat
December 1, 2023
Likely Democrat
March 10, 2023
Likely Democrat
2022
November 3, 2022
Tilt Democrat
October 7, 2022
Lean Democrat
January 10, 2022
Likely Democrat
December 28, 2021
Likely Democrat
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
September 28, 2018
Lean Democrat
August 17, 2018
Tilt Democrat
January 10, 2018
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
May 19, 2017
Toss-up
February 27, 2017
Tilt Republican
2016
November 3, 2016
Tilt Republican
October 21, 2016
Lean Republican
September 30, 2016
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Solid Republican
April 3, 2015
Solid Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Republican
March 8, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
December 2, 2011
Solid Republican
August 26, 2011
Solid Republican
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican