Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

California
21st District

Fresno area

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2024)

Current Rating

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Likely D

2024 Baseline

What's This?
D +10.7
D: 55.2%, R: 44.5%
November 4, 2025
California voters approved a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 cycles that was drawn to help Democrats flip an additional 3 to 5 seats.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

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Past Elections

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House

2024
52.6%
47.4%
D
✓Democrat
102,798 (52.6%)
R
Republican
92,733 (47.4%)
2022
54%
46%
D
✓Democrat
66,553 (54%)
R
Republican
56,627 (46%)

President

2024
50.6%
46.8%
D
✓Democrat
101,220 (50.6%)
R
Republican
93,644 (46.8%)
Other
5,248 (2.6%)
2020
58%
40%
D
✓Democrat
130,680 (58%)
R
Republican
90,079 (40%)
Other
4,597 (2%)
2016
57.6%
37%
D
✓Democrat
100,345 (57.6%)
R
Republican
64,396 (37%)
Other
9,360 (5.4%)

Senate

2024
51.6%
48.4%
D
✓Democrat
99,654 (51.6%)
R
Republican
93,633 (48.4%)
2022
53.4%
46.6%
D
✓Democrat
66,625 (53.4%)
R
Republican
58,239 (46.6%)

Governor

2022
50.8%
49.2%
D
✓Democrat
64,515 (50.8%)
R
Republican
62,513 (49.2%)
2021
54.2%
45.8%
D
✓Democrat
82,077 (54.2%)
R
Republican
69,234 (45.8%)
2018
55.5%
44.5%
D
✓Democrat
85,015 (55.5%)
R
Republican
68,232 (44.5%)

Attorney General

2022
D
✓Democrat
65,466 (52.4%)
R
Republican
59,531 (47.6%)
2018
D
✓Democrat
87,804 (58.1%)
R
Republican
63,225 (41.9%)

Controller

2022
D
Democrat
60,447 (48.7%)
R
✓Republican
63,723 (51.3%)
2018
D
✓Democrat
93,189 (61.7%)
R
Republican
57,832 (38.3%)

Insurance Commissioner

2022
D
✓Democrat
66,126 (53.2%)
R
Republican
58,271 (46.8%)

Lieutenant Governor

2022
D
✓Democrat
64,623 (51.5%)
R
Republican
60,795 (48.5%)

Secretary of State

2022
D
✓Democrat
66,209 (52.8%)
R
Republican
59,151 (47.2%)
2018
D
✓Democrat
90,920 (60%)
R
Republican
60,600 (40%)

Treasurer

2022
D
✓Democrat
64,338 (51.5%)
R
Republican
60,535 (48.5%)
2018
D
✓Democrat
86,918 (58.2%)
R
Republican
62,506 (41.8%)

Podcasts

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Calendar

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MAR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like … a Traditional Midterm Election

December 4, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Nov. 6, 2025)

November 6, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

November 5, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

A Detailed Analysis of California’s (Maybe) New Congressional Map

August 21, 2025
by Nathaniel Rakich

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Alaska – Iowa

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Coverage

C-SPAN Source Example

February 26, 2026
C-SPAN

Ratings

2026
March 12, 2026
Likely Democrat
December 5, 2025
Lean Democrat
March 7, 2025
Lean Democrat
2024
December 1, 2023
Solid Democrat
March 10, 2023
Solid Democrat
2022
January 10, 2022
Solid Democrat
December 28, 2021
Solid Democrat
2020
October 1, 2020
Toss-up
December 6, 2019
Tilt Democrat
August 30, 2019
Tilt Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Likely Republican
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
2016
December 4, 2015
Likely Republican
April 3, 2015
Likely Republican
2014
October 10, 2014
Likely Republican
August 15, 2014
Lean Republican
December 17, 2013
Tilt Republican
March 8, 2013
Tilt Republican
2012
June 6, 2012
Solid Republican
April 6, 2012
Lean Republican
March 23, 2012
Tilt Republican
January 13, 2012
Toss-up
December 2, 2011
Toss-up
August 26, 2011
Toss-up
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican