Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

California
3rd District

Northeastern Sacramento suburbs and Lake Tahoe to Death Valley

District Map

District map
Current (2026) Previous (2024)

Current Rating

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Solid D

2024 Baseline

What's This?
D +6.5
D: 53.1%, R: 46.6%
November 4, 2025
California voters approved a new congressional map for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 cycles that was drawn to help Democrats flip an additional 3 to 5 seats.
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2026 Election

Incumbents

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

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Past Elections

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House

2024
44.5%
55.5%
D
Democrat
188,067 (44.5%)
R
✓Republican
234,246 (55.5%)
2022
46.4%
53.6%
D
Democrat
154,543 (46.4%)
R
✓Republican
178,551 (53.6%)

President

2024
46.5%
50.3%
D
Democrat
201,922 (46.5%)
R
✓Republican
218,497 (50.3%)
Other
13,629 (3.1%)
2020
47.6%
49.9%
D
Democrat
212,475 (47.6%)
R
✓Republican
223,002 (49.9%)
Other
10,988 (2.5%)
2016
42.2%
50.6%
D
Democrat
151,345 (42.2%)
R
✓Republican
181,714 (50.6%)
Other
25,847 (7.2%)

Senate

2024
45.6%
54.4%
D
Democrat
193,295 (45.6%)
R
✓Republican
230,709 (54.4%)
2022
45.9%
54.1%
D
Democrat
154,444 (45.9%)
R
✓Republican
181,705 (54.1%)

Governor

2022
43.2%
56.8%
D
Democrat
146,740 (43.2%)
R
✓Republican
192,846 (56.8%)
2021
44.9%
55.1%
D
Democrat
168,729 (44.9%)
R
✓Republican
207,284 (55.1%)
2018
43.8%
56.2%
D
Democrat
150,176 (43.8%)
R
✓Republican
192,911 (56.2%)

Attorney General

2022
D
Democrat
147,843 (44.5%)
R
✓Republican
184,672 (55.5%)
2018
D
Democrat
153,653 (45.3%)
R
✓Republican
185,295 (54.7%)

Controller

2022
D
Democrat
138,023 (41.4%)
R
✓Republican
195,392 (58.6%)
2018
D
Democrat
165,664 (49%)
R
✓Republican
172,562 (51%)

Insurance Commissioner

2022
D
Democrat
148,604 (44.9%)
R
✓Republican
182,502 (55.1%)

Lieutenant Governor

2022
D
Democrat
151,907 (45.2%)
R
✓Republican
183,938 (54.8%)

Secretary of State

2022
D
Democrat
150,834 (45.1%)
R
✓Republican
183,375 (54.9%)
2018
D
Democrat
158,478 (46.7%)
R
✓Republican
180,526 (53.3%)

Treasurer

2022
D
Democrat
146,953 (44.3%)
R
✓Republican
184,581 (55.7%)
2018
D
Democrat
158,286 (47%)
R
✓Republican
178,804 (53%)

Podcasts

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Calendar

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MAR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUN
2
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

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by Jacob Rubashkin

It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like … a Traditional Midterm Election

December 4, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

House & Governor Report Shorts (Nov. 20, 2025)

November 20, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Nov. 6, 2025)

November 6, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

12 Initial Takeaways from Tuesday’s Elections

November 5, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

A Detailed Analysis of California’s (Maybe) New Congressional Map

August 21, 2025
by Nathaniel Rakich

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

August 14, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Alaska – Iowa

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Coverage

C-SPAN Source Example

February 26, 2026
C-SPAN

Ratings

2026
March 12, 2026
Solid Democrat
December 5, 2025
Solid Democrat
November 6, 2025
Solid Democrat
March 7, 2025
Likely Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Likely Republican
March 10, 2023
Likely Republican
2022
January 10, 2022
Likely Republican
December 28, 2021
Likely Republican
2020
December 6, 2019
Solid Democrat
February 15, 2019
Solid Democrat
2018
December 1, 2017
Solid Democrat
February 27, 2017
Solid Democrat
2016
December 4, 2015
Solid Democrat
April 3, 2015
Solid Democrat
2014
December 17, 2013
Solid Democrat
March 8, 2013
Solid Democrat
2012
October 19, 2012
Solid Democrat
September 28, 2012
Likely Democrat
December 2, 2011
Lean Democrat
August 26, 2011
Lean Democrat
2010
October 22, 2010
Lean Republican
October 1, 2010
Tilt Republican
August 23, 2010
Lean Republican