Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Arizona
2nd District

Northeastern Arizona

District Map

District map

Current Rating

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Likely R

2024 Baseline

What's This?
R +8.6
D: 45.4%, R: 54%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUL
21
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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2026 House Overview (June 11, 2026)

June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

House Overview (March 12, 2026): Alabama – Iowa

March 12, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Arizona 6: Send the Marine

October 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up

October 2, 2025
by Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (June 5, 2025): Alaska – Iowa

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Arizona 7 Special: The Tussle in Tucson

May 15, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
December 5, 2025
Likely Republican
March 7, 2025
Likely Republican
2024
September 12, 2024
Likely Republican
December 1, 2023
Solid Republican
March 10, 2023
Solid Republican
2022
January 10, 2022
Lean Republican
December 30, 2021
Lean Republican
2020
February 21, 2020
Solid Democrat
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
October 12, 2018
Lean Democrat
February 16, 2018
Tilt Democrat
January 19, 2018
Toss-up
December 1, 2017
Toss-up
November 10, 2017
Toss-up
May 19, 2017
Lean Republican
February 27, 2017
Likely Republican
2016
September 30, 2016
Solid Republican
January 25, 2016
Likely Republican
December 4, 2015
Lean Republican
April 3, 2015
Lean Republican
2014
December 17, 2013
Toss-up
March 8, 2013
Toss-up
2012
November 2, 2012
Tilt Democrat
October 26, 2012
Lean Democrat
August 24, 2012
Likely Democrat
August 10, 2012
Lean Democrat
June 13, 2012
Lean Democrat
January 27, 2012
Toss-up
January 13, 2012
Solid Democrat
2010
August 23, 2010
Solid Republican