Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Arizona
1st District

Northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale

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Current Rating

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Tilt D

Baseline

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R +1.3
D: 49.1%, R: 50.4%

2026 Election

Incumbent

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FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs (R)

44% D A. Shah
42% R T. Feely
Source: FirstStrategic Communications and Public Affairs Oct 1, 2026

Past Elections

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Calendar

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APR
6
2026
Candidate Filing Deadline
JUL
21
2026
Primary Election Day
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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July 22, 2026
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June 11, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

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March 12, 2026
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Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Alabama – Iowa

December 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Arizona 6: Send the Marine

October 9, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 15, 2026
Tilt Democrat
December 5, 2025
Toss-up
October 2, 2025
Toss-up
March 7, 2025
Tilt Republican
2024
December 1, 2023
Tilt Republican
March 10, 2023
Tilt Republican
2022
January 10, 2022
Lean Republican
December 30, 2021
Lean Republican
2020
December 6, 2019
Likely Democrat
February 15, 2019
Likely Democrat
2018
August 17, 2018
Lean Democrat
December 1, 2017
Tilt Democrat
November 10, 2017
Tilt Democrat
February 27, 2017
Toss-up
2016
October 14, 2016
Lean Democrat
September 30, 2016
Tilt Democrat
December 4, 2015
Toss-up
May 26, 2015
Toss-up
April 3, 2015
Lean Democrat
2014
September 12, 2014
Toss-up
December 17, 2013
Tilt Democrat
March 8, 2013
Tilt Democrat
2012
November 2, 2012
Toss-up
October 19, 2012
Tilt Democrat
January 13, 2012
Lean Democrat
June 21, 2011
Tilt Republican
2010
September 24, 2010
Lean Republican
September 17, 2010
Tilt Republican
September 7, 2010
Tilt Democrat
August 23, 2010
Lean Democrat