Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Governor

State Map

State map

Current Rating

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Solid R

2025 Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
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2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

CANDIDATE RAISED SPENT CASH-ON-HAND
R Greg Abbott Incumbent $45,912,931 $85,676,602 $96,072,704
D Gina Hinojosa Nominee $2,417,682 $1,660,188 $617,635
L Pat Dixon $4,050 $0 $300

Totals as of July 3, 2026 — Source: Inside Elections

Past Elections

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Calendar

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DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

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Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan Gonzales

Texas: Republicans, Democrats Face Critical Early Primaries

February 19, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026
by Nathan Gonzales

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate & Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 11, 2025)

September 11, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

2025-2026 Gubernatorial Overview (Aug. 28, 2025): New York – Wyoming

August 28, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Report Shorts (July 10, 2025)

July 10, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Senate & Governor Report Shorts (June 5, 2025)

June 5, 2025
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
February 6, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
January 20, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
December 3, 2021
Solid Republican
February 19, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
February 1, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
April 21, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
January 23, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
July 19, 2013
Solid Republican
February 22, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
December 2, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 29, 2010
Lean Republican
September 17, 2010
Tilt Republican
July 2, 2010
Lean Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7