Nonpartisan Analysis Since 1980

Texas
Governor

State Map

State map

Current Rating

See All
Tilt R

Baseline

What's This?
R +10.9
D: 43.8%, R: 54.7%
August 20, 2025
Texas passed a new congressional map in August 2025 designed to help the party flip as many as five Democratic-held districts.
Read More

2026 Election

Incumbent

Candidates

Campaign Finance Data

CANDIDATE RAISED SPENT CASH-ON-HAND
R Greg Abbott Nominee & Incumbent $45,912,931 $85,676,602 $96,072,704
D Gina Hinojosa Nominee $2,417,682 $1,660,188 $617,635
L Pat Dixon Nominee $4,050 $0 $300

Totals as of September 17, 2026 — Source: Inside Elections

Polls

See All

Marist University

49% R G. Abbott
45% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Marist University Oct 8 – Oct 11, 2026

ReconMR/Siena Univ.

48% R G. Abbott
47% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Siena University/ReconMR Oct 5 – Oct 8, 2026

GBAO (D) for Hinojosa

47% D G. Hinojosa
45% R G. Abbott
4% I
Source: GBAO Oct 5 – Oct 8, 2026

Univ. of Texas/YouGov

49% D G. Hinojosa
48% R G. Abbott
1% I
Source: University of Texas/YouGov Sep 25 – Oct 5, 2026

Stratus Intelligence (R) for Texans for a Conservative Majority

50% R G. Abbott
45% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Stratus Intelligence Sep 22 – Sep 24, 2026

Slingshot Strategies (D) Texas Public Opinion Research

50% R G. Abbott
46% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Slingshot Strategies Sep 19 – Sep 22, 2026

Marist Univ.

49% D G. Hinojosa
46% R G. Abbott
Source: Marist University Sep 17 – Sep 20, 2026

Emerson College for Nexstar

49% R G. Abbott
46% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Emerson College Sep 12 – Sep 14, 2026

Siena Univ./ReconMR

49% D G. Hinojosa
45% R G. Abbott
Source: Siena University/ReconMR Sep 8 – Sep 11, 2026

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy

48% R G. Abbott
41% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy Sep 8 – Sep 10, 2026

YouGov for Univision

47% R G. Abbott
47% D G. Hinojosa
Source: YouGov Aug 27 – Sep 4, 2026

Fabrizio Lee (R)/Impact Research (D)

49% R G. Abbott
46% D G. Hinojosa
Source: Fabrizio Ward /Impact Research Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2026

Emerson College for Nexstar

49% R G. Abbott
45% D G. Hinojosa
Aug 9 – Aug 10, 2026

Cygnal (R)

49% R G. Abbott
46% D G. Hinojosa
Jul 29 – Jul 31, 2026

Past Elections

Subscribe

To view past election results you'll need to have access to an active subscription.

Sign UpLogin

Share

Twitter (X) Facebook Email

Calendar

See All
DEC
8
2025
Candidate Filing Deadline
MAR
3
2026
Primary Election Day
MAY
26
2026
Primary Runoff
NOV
3
2026
Election Day

Analysis

See All

2026 Gubernatorial Report Shorts (Oct. 29, 2026)

October 29, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

The Issues Fueling the Most Expensive Ad War in Midterm History

October 26, 2026
by Inshara Ali

Governor Report Shorts (Oct. 15, 2026)

October 15, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

Governor Report Shorts (Oct. 1, 2026)

October 1, 2026
by Nathan L. Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin & Inshara Ali

The States Most Likely to Split Tickets in 2026

September 24, 2026
by Bradley Wascher

Governor Report Shorts (Sept. 17, 2026)

September 17, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Governor Report Shorts (Aug. 20, 2026)

August 20, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Governor Report Shorts (August 6, 2026)

August 6, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Inshara Ali & Nicholas Demba

Gubernatorial Overview (June 25, 2026)

June 25, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin, Nathan L. Gonzales & Inshara Ali

Report Shorts (April 23, 2026)

April 23, 2026
by Jacob Rubashkin

Ratings

2026
October 29, 2026
Tilt Republican
October 15, 2026
Lean Republican
August 6, 2026
Likely Republican
February 6, 2025
Solid Republican
2024
January 20, 2023
Not Up This Cycle
2022
December 3, 2021
Solid Republican
February 19, 2021
Solid Republican
2020
February 1, 2019
Not Up This Cycle
2018
April 21, 2017
Solid Republican
2016
January 23, 2015
Not Up This Cycle
2014
July 19, 2013
Solid Republican
February 22, 2013
Solid Republican
2012
December 2, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
January 3, 2011
Not Up This Cycle
2010
October 29, 2010
Lean Republican
September 17, 2010
Tilt Republican
July 2, 2010
Lean Republican

Baselines

About
2025+10.9D 43.8, R 54.7
2024
+10.9
2022
+10.6
2020
+13.0
2018
+14.5
2016
+19.9
2014
+18.7